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Build your edge in understanding
Build your betting analysis with practical guides to probability, odds, EV, models, and football markets. Learn the method, then put it to work with Predora’s tools.
Essential guides
Find the value behind the odds
Put probability, price, and return together with practical guides and tools for evaluating football betting opportunities.
Definitive guide
Value bets in football
Explore where model probabilities and bookmaker prices differ, then investigate the match evidence behind potential value.
Read guideExpected value in betting
Calculate EV and see how a probability estimate and price combine to shape expected return.
Read guide+EV bets
Connect probability, fair odds, edge, and EV to investigate prices above your estimated fair value.
Read guideHigh probability vs value
Compare likely outcomes with attractive prices and see how probability and EV answer different betting questions.
Read guideAccuracy rate vs return
Explore how hit rate, odds, return, and sample size work together to reveal the performance of a betting approach.
Read guideBankroll management for value betting
Compare stake sizes, put results on a common scale, and explore how fluctuations affect a bankroll.
Read guideVariance in football betting
Explore how results fluctuate and use sample size, odds, and stake sizes to evaluate a strategy over time.
Read guideHow to compare odds in football
Compare the same bet across bookmakers and see when better odds, fair odds and EV point to value.
Read guideModels and AI
Understand how the app analyzes games
Explore how models produce probabilities, compare their methods, and examine historical performance.
Predora.si workflows
Put Predora’s intelligence to work
Discover practical ways to compare opportunities, investigate matches, and evaluate model performance with Predora.
AI Radar: discover matches through historical patterns
Understand how AI Radar organizes simulated historical performance slices to support comparative analysis.
Read guidePerformance by League: Base, Hit Rate, and Return
Compare Base, Hit rate, and simulated historical results by championship, league, and market.
Read guideUpcoming Games with EV+: how to interpret the data
Compare estimated probability, observed odds, fair price, EV, and context in each scenario.
Read guideAI + Statistics: how to compare game signals
Compare model estimates, odds, EV, and statistical factors to interpret convergences and divergences.
Read guideFootball markets
Explore the factors behind each market
Discover which match factors matter for each market, then connect the evidence with probability and price.
1x2 market in football
Understand home, draw, and away, and see how to evaluate fair odds, EV, and factors of the final result.
Read guideDouble Chance in football
Compare how 1X, X2, and 12 relate to probability, value, and the price of protection.
Read guideOver 2.5 goals in football
Learn to analyze Over 2.5 goals with probability, EV, offensive factors, goals conceded, and context.
Read guideOver 9.5 corners
Compare corner volume, territorial pressure, shots, league average, best odds, and EV.
Read guideBTTS / Both teams to score
Compare goals, clean sheets, odds, and EV to interpret both teams' output.
Read guideFeatured Glossary
Quick definitions for reference
Clear definitions, formulas, and football examples to help you put each concept into practice.
Value and EV
What is a value bet?
A bet where the offered odds are above the fair price estimated by the model's probability.
Read definitionBankroll and risk
What is a bankroll in betting?
Reference amount used to measure exposure, units, results, and risk in a betting analysis.
Read definitionValue and EV
What is edge in betting?
Difference between the probability estimated by the model and the implied probability of the bookmaker's odds.
Read definitionValue and EV
What is EV in betting?
Expected value compares the estimated probability with the observed odds to measure the mathematical expectation conditioned on the estimate.
Read definitionValue and EV
What is negative EV?
Negative EV is when the odds do not compensate for the estimated probability, indicating a price below fair value.
Read definitionValue and EV
What is positive EV?
Positive EV is when the expected value of a bet is above zero and may indicate estimated value under the probability used.
Read definitionOdds and probability
What is the bookmaker margin?
Bookmaker margin is the percentage embedded in odds that makes the sum of a market's implied probabilities exceed 100%.
Read definitionOdds and probability
What is best odds?
The highest available odds among bookmakers for the same bet, in the same game, market, and line.
Read definitionOdds and probability
What is overround?
Sum of the implied probabilities of the odds in a market; the excess above 100% indicates the bookmaker's built-in margin.
Read definitionOdds and probability
What are odds?
Odds are the decimal price associated with a market selection and allow comparing scenarios.
Read definitionOdds and probability
What are decimal odds?
Decimal odds are the most common odds format in Brazil and show the total return of a winning bet, including the stake.
Read definitionOdds and probability
Fair odds
Fair odds are the price consistent with an estimated probability, before comparing with the bookmaker's odds.
Read definitionValue and EV
What is fair price?
Fair price is the odds consistent with the estimated probability for an outcome or market.
Read definitionOdds and probability
What is break-even probability?
Minimum chance a bet needs to break even in the long run at a given odds.
Read definitionPerformance metrics
What is ROI in betting?
ROI measures the percentage return of a strategy relative to the total staked, considering net balance, odds, and volume.
Read definitionPerformance metrics
What is yield in betting?
Yield is the percentage of net result over the total staked, used to measure a strategy's efficiency in the long run.
Read definitionOdds and probability
What is estimated probability?
Chance calculated by a model for a result or market to happen. It is the basis for fair odds, edge, and EV.
Read definitionOdds and probability
Implied probability
Implied probability is the chance embedded in decimal odds, before comparing with the model's estimate.
Read definitionBankroll and risk
What is stake?
Stake is the amount exposed in a specific bet and allows measuring its impact on risk, return, and variance.
Read definitionBankroll and risk
What is a betting unit?
Betting unit is a standardized measure of exposure, usually expressed as a percentage of the reference bankroll.
Read definitionBankroll and risk
What is variance?
Natural fluctuation of results in the short term, even when the decision has value and a coherent process.
Read definitionPerformance metrics
What is statistical sample?
Number and slice of games used to calculate metrics such as hit rate, return, and performance.
Read definitionPerformance metrics
What is a sample in betting?
Set of games or entries used to calculate a metric, such as hit rate, return, or ROI.
Read definitionPerformance metrics
What is CLV?
Metric that compares the odds bet with the closing odds of the same market before the game starts.
Read definitionFootball markets
What is the 1x2 market?
Final result market: 1 is home, X is draw, and 2 is away.
Read definitionFootball markets
What is Double Chance?
Market that covers two of the three possible results of a game: 1X, X2, or 12.
Read definitionFootball markets
What is Over/Under?
Market where you bet whether the total goals will be over or under a line, such as 2.5 goals.
Read definitionFootball markets
What is BTTS?
Both Teams To Score, the Both teams to score market: the bet wins when both teams score.
Read definitionFootball markets
What is Over 9.5 corners?
A bet that wins when the match has 10 or more corners in total, adding up home and away teams.
Read definitionModels and AI
What is a predictive model?
A system that uses data, statistics, and mathematical logic to estimate the probability of an outcome in football.
Read definitionModels and AI
What is the Active Model?
Model in use at Predora.si to calculate probability, fair odds, and EV in football scenarios.
Read definitionModels and AI
What is a custom model?
Model created by the user to adjust the reading of matches per market using factor boosts.
Read definitionModels and AI
What are predictive factors?
Statistical signals that help explain, compare, or contextualize a model's forecast in a football market.
Read definitionModels and AI
What is AI Radar?
Statistical screening that organizes matches by simulated historical performance filters of the Active Model.
Read definitionPerformance metrics
What is hit rate?
Percentage of correctly analyzed results within a statistical base.
Read definitionPerformance metrics
What is return in betting?
Percentage that shows how much a strategy yielded or lost relative to the total staked, considering odds and base.
Read definition