Glossary
Football value betting glossary
Get clear answers, useful formulas, and football examples for the concepts behind odds, EV, models, and betting strategy.
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36 terms found
Value and EV
What is a value bet?
A bet where the offered odds are above the fair price estimated by the model's probability.
EV = (estimated probability × odds) − 1Read definitionBankroll and risk
What is a bankroll in betting?
Reference amount used to measure exposure, units, results, and risk in a betting analysis.
Unit = bankroll × defined percentageRead definitionValue and EV
What is edge in betting?
Difference between the probability estimated by the model and the implied probability of the bookmaker's odds.
Edge = estimated probability − implied probabilityRead definitionValue and EV
What is EV in betting?
Expected value compares the estimated probability with the observed odds to measure the mathematical expectation conditioned on the estimate.
EV = (estimated probability x decimal odds) - 1Read definitionValue and EV
What is negative EV?
Negative EV is when the odds do not compensate for the estimated probability, indicating a price below fair value.
EV = (estimated probability × odds) − 1Read definitionValue and EV
What is positive EV?
Positive EV is when the expected value of a bet is above zero and may indicate estimated value under the probability used.
EV = (estimated probability × decimal odds) − 1Read definitionOdds and probability
What is the bookmaker margin?
Bookmaker margin is the percentage embedded in odds that makes the sum of a market's implied probabilities exceed 100%.
Margin = sum of implied probabilities - 100%Read definitionOdds and probability
What is best odds?
The highest available odds among bookmakers for the same bet, in the same game, market, and line.
Best odds = highest comparable odds availableRead definitionOdds and probability
What is overround?
Sum of the implied probabilities of the odds in a market; the excess above 100% indicates the bookmaker's built-in margin.
Overround (%) = Σ(1 ÷ decimal odd) × 100Read definitionOdds and probability
What are odds?
Odds are the decimal price associated with a market selection and allow comparing scenarios.
Implied probability = 1 ÷ decimal oddsRead definitionOdds and probability
What are decimal odds?
Decimal odds are the most common odds format in Brazil and show the total return of a winning bet, including the stake.
Total return = amount staked × decimal oddsRead definitionOdds and probability
Fair odds
Fair odds are the price consistent with an estimated probability, before comparing with the bookmaker's odds.
Fair odds = 1 / estimated probabilityRead definitionValue and EV
What is fair price?
Fair price is the odds consistent with the estimated probability for an outcome or market.
Fair price = 1 ÷ estimated probabilityRead definitionOdds and probability
What is break-even probability?
Minimum chance a bet needs to break even in the long run at a given odds.
Break-even probability = 1 ÷ decimal oddsRead definitionPerformance metrics
What is ROI in betting?
ROI measures the percentage return of a strategy relative to the total staked, considering net balance, odds, and volume.
ROI = (net balance ÷ total staked) × 100Read definitionPerformance metrics
What is yield in betting?
Yield is the percentage of net result over the total staked, used to measure a strategy's efficiency in the long run.
Yield (%) = (net profit ÷ total amount staked) × 100Read definitionOdds and probability
What is estimated probability?
Chance calculated by a model for a result or market to happen. It is the basis for fair odds, edge, and EV.
Fair odds = 1 / estimated probabilityRead definitionOdds and probability
Implied probability
Implied probability is the chance embedded in decimal odds, before comparing with the model's estimate.
Implied probability = (1 / decimal odds) x 100Read definitionBankroll and risk
What is stake?
Stake is the amount exposed in a specific bet and allows measuring its impact on risk, return, and variance.
Stake = bankroll × chosen percentageRead definitionBankroll and risk
What is a betting unit?
Betting unit is a standardized measure of exposure, usually expressed as a percentage of the reference bankroll.
1 unit = bankroll × chosen percentageRead definitionBankroll and risk
What is variance?
Natural fluctuation of results in the short term, even when the decision has value and a coherent process.
Observed result = decision quality + short-term fluctuationRead definitionPerformance metrics
What is statistical sample?
Number and slice of games used to calculate metrics such as hit rate, return, and performance.
Base = total games or entries in the analyzed sliceRead definitionPerformance metrics
What is a sample in betting?
Set of games or entries used to calculate a metric, such as hit rate, return, or ROI.
Sample = games or entries considered in the calculationRead definitionPerformance metrics
What is CLV?
Metric that compares the odds bet with the closing odds of the same market before the game starts.
CLV = implied prob. at closing - implied prob. at entryRead definitionFootball markets
What is the 1x2 market?
Final result market: 1 is home, X is draw, and 2 is away.
EV = (estimated probability x odds) - 1Read definitionFootball markets
What is Double Chance?
Market that covers two of the three possible results of a game: 1X, X2, or 12.
Double Chance probability = sum of the two covered outcomesRead definitionFootball markets
What is Over/Under?
Market where you bet whether the total goals will be over or under a line, such as 2.5 goals.
Over X = goals > X; Under X = goals < XRead definitionFootball markets
What is BTTS?
Both Teams To Score, the Both teams to score market: the bet wins when both teams score.
BTTS Yes = home scores >= 1 and away scores >= 1Read definitionFootball markets
What is Over 9.5 corners?
A bet that wins when the match has 10 or more corners in total, adding up home and away teams.
Total corners >= 10Read definitionModels and AI
What is a predictive model?
A system that uses data, statistics, and mathematical logic to estimate the probability of an outcome in football.
Data + factors + method = estimated probabilityRead definitionModels and AI
What is the Active Model?
Model in use at Predora.si to calculate probability, fair odds, and EV in football scenarios.
Read definitionModels and AI
What is a custom model?
Model created by the user to adjust the reading of matches per market using factor boosts.
Read definitionModels and AI
What are predictive factors?
Statistical signals that help explain, compare, or contextualize a model's forecast in a football market.
Read definitionModels and AI
What is AI Radar?
Statistical screening that organizes matches by simulated historical performance filters of the Active Model.
Base + Hit Rate + Return by filterRead definitionPerformance metrics
What is hit rate?
Percentage of correctly analyzed results within a statistical base.
Hit rate = wins / total x 100Read definitionPerformance metrics
What is return in betting?
Percentage that shows how much a strategy yielded or lost relative to the total staked, considering odds and base.
Return (%) = net result / total staked x 100Read definition