Free tool
Explore how a bankroll can move under the same betting assumptions. Compare simulated paths, drawdowns, and stake sizes to understand the range of outcomes.
What does this simulator calculate?
The betting variance simulator shows possible paths for your bankroll based on hit probability, average odds, stake, initial bankroll, and bet volume. It doesn't predict the future. It helps you visualize how much results can fluctuate in the short term, even in strategies with positive expected value.
Simulator
The default values use a bankroll of $1,000, 1% stake, odds of 2.00, estimated probability of 53%, 200 bets, and 1,000 simulations.
Visualizations
Each line represents a possible path with 1% of bankroll, average odds of 2.00, and 53.00% estimated hit rate.
Distribution
Higher bars show where most simulations ended up.
Pior final: $733.44. Melhor final: $1,877.65.
Likely range
P5 is a bad scenario, P50 is the median, and P95 is a very good scenario within the simulations.
| Percentile | Final bankroll | Profit/loss |
|---|---|---|
| P5 | $878.09 | -$121.91 |
| P50 | $1,116.28 | +$116.28 |
| P95 | $1,419.08 | +$419.08 |
EV = (estimated probability × decimal odds) − 1Profit when winning = stake × (odds − 1)Loss on a miss = stakeVariance = dispersion of results relative to the expected valueDrawdown = decline of the bankroll relative to the previous peakThe simulator generates random paths from your inputs. Compare those paths to see how variance affects bankroll, drawdown, and streaks under the same assumptions.
Imagine a strategy in Brasileirão games with an average odd of 2.05, an estimated probability of 52%, and a stake of 1% of the bankroll. The EV may be positive, but the simulation may show negative weeks, streaks of 6-10 reds, and temporary drawdowns. That does not prove the strategy is dead; it may be variance.
| Metric | What it means | How to use it in practice |
|---|---|---|
| Estimated EV | Expected value percentage of each bet based on the odd and probability provided. | Use the calculated probabilities as a starting point, then explore the match statistics and context. |
| Probability of profit | Percentage of simulations that ended above the initial bankroll. | Compare stake and volume scenarios to understand the chance of ending positive. |
| Drawdown | Bankroll decline relative to the highest peak reached along the way. | Helps measure whether you could withstand the fluctuation without abandoning the process. |
| Risk of ruin | Percentage of simulations that hit the ruin stop or could no longer sustain the stake. | Compare how changes in stake, volume, or average odd alter this percentage. |
| Losing streak | Longest streak of lost bets found in the simulations. | Shows why a rough patch can happen even with positive EV. |
| Percentiles | Likely range of final results, such as P5, P50, and P95. | Use it to see a bad, average, and very good scenario without fixating on the mean. |
On Predora.si, you can use Upcoming Games with EV+ to check scenarios sorted by EV, Performance to see Base, Hit Rate, and Return by league, and AI + Stats to compare the game context. The variance simulator helps you understand whether your stake and bankroll can withstand the normal fluctuation of the strategy.
Compare how stake, bankroll, EV, and volume change drawdown, risk of ruin, and the distribution of simulated results.
Explore Predora.siVariance is the natural fluctuation between the expected result and the observed result in the short term. In betting, it explains why good decisions can lose in a row.
Yes. Positive EV improves the long-term expectation, but it does not prevent bad weeks, drawdowns, or streaks of reds.
Use at least a few hundred to better see the distribution. Few bets show more noise than process.
It is the simulated chance of the bankroll hitting a defined loss limit or no longer sustaining the stake plan.
With the same parameters, smaller stakes tend to produce smaller drawdowns, while larger stakes amplify the simulated dispersion and risk of ruin.
Explore how results can vary under the same inputs. Compare simulated paths, drawdowns, and streaks to understand the range of outcomes in your scenario.