Find the connection between probability and price
EV compares your probability estimate with the offered odds. It turns that relationship into an expected average return, making prices easier to evaluate.
The simple formula
EV = chance of winning x profit if you win - chance of losing x amount staked. Positive EV means the odds exceed the fair price implied by your probability estimate. Change the estimate or price to see how the expected return responds.
At odds of 2.10, a 52% probability estimate gives an EV of +9.2%. The price implies 47.62%, so your estimate is 4.38 percentage points higher. Use the EV calculator to compare prices, then explore the model and match factors in Predora to assess the estimate.