Probability calculator

Implied probability calculator

Odds show the payout. Implied probability shows what chance the market is pricing for that outcome.

How to interpret

In decimal odds, implied probability is calculated as 100 divided by the odds. Odds of 2.00 represent 50%. Odds of 1.50 represent 66.67%.

If your estimate is higher than the implied probability, there may be a positive difference between the estimate and the price. If it is lower, the odds fall below the calculated fair price.

Why this matters

  • Helps compare market price with your own reading.
  • Makes different odds easier to compare.
  • Shows why gross return alone is not enough to compare selections.