Direct answer
The Active Model is the model currently in use at Predora.si at that moment. It works as the app's main mathematical lens for calculating estimated probability, fair odds, and EV.
The match can be the same, but if you change the Active Model, the mathematical reading can change along with it.
Quick summary
| Definition | The model currently selected to guide the app's calculations. |
|---|---|
| What influences | Chance, fair odds, edge, EV, sorting, and highlights in the grids. |
| Where it appears | Upcoming Matches, EV+, High Probability, AI Radar, and Performance. |
| Does not change | The bookmaker odds. What changes is Predora's reading of those odds. |
| Common mistake | Reading the Active Model’s estimate without checking its method or history. |
How the Active Model works
Think of the Active Model as the running engine of your analysis. It guides the calculations on the main pages and defines the app's reading for the selected market.
When you open Upcoming Matches, EV+, High Probability, or AI Radar, Predora.si uses the Active Model to calculate chance, EV, fair odds, and highlights.
Formula or logic
There is no single formula called the Active Model. It provides the estimated probability used in other important calculations.
Fair odds = 1 / estimated probability Implied probability = 1 / decimal odd Edge = estimated probability - implied probability EV = (estimated probability x odd) - 1Example in football
Imagine a Série A match in the 1x2 market. The Active Model estimates 55% for the home team to win and the best odd is 2.05. The EV comes out to +12.75%.
If another model estimates 48% for the same analyzed outcome, with the same odd, the EV turns negative. The odd didn't change; the probability estimated by the active lens changed.
How it appears on Predora.si
In the app, the Active Model appears as a card at the top of the analysis pages, usually with the model name, league, market, Base, Hit Rate, and Return.
- The chance shown in the grids comes from the Active Model.
- The Value (EV) depends on the probability estimated by that model.
- AI Radar, EV+, and High Probability change when the active lens changes.
Model, Active Model, and custom model
A model is the lens. The Active Model is the lens currently in use. A custom model is a lens created by the user with adjustments per market.
| Term | Role in the app |
|---|---|
| Model | Engine that turns data into probability. |
| Active Model | The model that is active and defines the main calculations. |
| Custom model | A model created by the user with adjustments per market. |
Common mistakes
Treating the Active Model as a certain result
The model turns its inputs into probabilities. Compare its estimates with relevant match factors and historical results.
Thinking that switching models changes the odds
The odds still come from the market. What changes is the estimated probability and, with it, the EV.
Practical checklist
- Check which model is active.
- See which market is selected.
- Check Accuracy, Base, Hit Rate, and Return.
- Understand whether you are comparing chance or EV.
- Compare the observed odds with the model's reading.
FAQ about Active Model
Is there only one Active Model at a time?
Yes. The app uses one Active Model at a time as the main reference for probability, fair odds, edge, and EV.
Does switching the Active Model change bookmaker odds?
No. What changes is the probability estimated by the model and, consequently, fair odds, edge, and EV.
Is Active Model the same thing as a custom model?
Not exactly. A custom model can become the Active Model, but house models can also be active.
Why does the EV change when I switch models?
Because EV depends on the estimated probability. If the probability changes, the comparison with the same odds also changes.
How do I assess the Active Model’s estimates?
Review its method, sample size, calibration, and historical results. Compare its probabilities with the match evidence and offered prices.
The active model matters
Before analyzing chance, EV, or Return, check which Active Model is guiding the experience. This lens defines how Predora.si interprets matches at that moment.