División Profesional
Cdt Real Oruro crestCdt Real Oruro
1–0Finished
Club Aurora crestClub Aurora

Cdt Real Oruro 1 x 0 Club Aurora: prediction analysis

The model predicted correctly 1 of 5 settled markets.

Correct predictions

  • Double Chance: prediction Cdt Real Oruro or Club Aurora; result Cdt Real Oruro 1–0.

Incorrect predictions

  • 1x2: prediction Club Aurora; result Cdt Real Oruro 1–0.
  • Over 2.5 goals: prediction Over 2.5; result 1 goal.
  • Both Teams to Score: prediction Yes; result No.
  • Over 9.5 corners: prediction Under 9.5; result 11 corners.

Final assessment: For this game, more predictions differed from the observed results than matched them.

English AI analysis is currently unavailable for this game.

Market 1x2

#75298384
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
2.47 / 40.5%
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
2.30 / 43.5%
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-3.0 p.p.
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-6.8%

Odds Comparison

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Probability Models

Cdt Real OruroDrawClub Aurora
Predora Market Median 34.0% / 2.94 25.5% / 3.93 40.5% / 2.47

Market Double Chance

#75298384
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.34 / 74.5%
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.50 / 66.7%
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
+7.9 p.p.
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
+11.8%

Odds Comparison

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Probability Models

1XX212
Predora Market Median 59.5% / 1.68 66.0% / 1.52 74.5% / 1.34

AI Analysis

Market and data diverge

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Team Comparison

Head-to-head (H2H) These statistics use the teams' most recent head-to-head games, generally from the last 10 to 15 years.H2H Last 5

Factor Cdt Real Oruro Club Aurora
H2H: W/D/L (last 5) Results from the last 5 head-to-head games between the teams. Example: 3–1–1 = 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss for the team on the left.1-2-00-2-1
H2H: win % (home vs. away) (last 5) Head-to-head win percentage (last 5), split by home and away team. Example: the home team won 3 of 5 = 60%.33.3 %0 %

Outcome Strength (Season)

Game context (Home/Away)

Factor Cdt Real Oruro Home Club Aurora Away
PPG (home/away) Average points per game in the relevant context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 6 points in 4 games = 1.5 points/game.Points per game in context (home team at home / away team away).1 pts/game1.27 pts/game
Win % (home/away) Win percentage in the relevant context (home for the home team, away for the away team). Example: 2 wins in 4 games = 50%.30 %27.3 %
Draw % (home/away) Draw percentage in the home/away context. Example: 1 draw in 4 games = 25%.10 %45.5 %
Goal difference (home/away) Average goal difference in context: goals scored minus goals conceded per game. Example: scored 6 and conceded 4 in 4 games → (6−4)/4 = +0.5.-0.64 goals/game-0.25 goals/game
xG difference (home/away) Average xG difference in context: xG for minus xG against per game. Example: 1.4 − 1.1 = +0.3 xG/game.-0.2 xG/game-0.05 xG/game

Season baseline (Overall) Temp

Factor Cdt Real Oruro Club Aurora
PPG (overall) Average points per game this season (home + away). Example: 12 points in 8 games = 1.5 points/game.1.14 pts/game1.48 pts/game
Win % (overall) Win percentage this season (home + away). Example: 4 wins in 8 games = 50%.33.3 %33.3 %
Draw % (overall) Draw percentage this season (home + away). Example: 2 draws in 8 games = 25%.14.3 %47.6 %
Goal difference (overall) Average goal difference this season: (goals scored − goals conceded) / games. Example: 10−6 in 8 games → +0.5 per game.-0.68 goals/game0.14 goals/game
xG difference (overall) Average xG difference this season: xG for minus xG against per game. Example: 1.6 − 1.2 = +0.4 xG/game.-0.59 xG/game0.18 xG/game

Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5

Factor Cdt Real Oruro Club Aurora
Form (last 5): W/D/L Results from the last 5 games: wins, draws, and losses. Example: 2–2–1 = 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss.3-1-11-3-1
PPG (last 5) Average points from the last 5 games. Example: 7 points in 5 games = 1.4 points/game.2 pts/game1.2 pts/game

Market Over 2.5 goals

#75298384
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.57 / 63.8%
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.48 / 67.8%
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-4.0 p.p.
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-5.9%

Odds Comparison

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Probability Models

OverUnder
Predora Market Median 63.8% / 1.57 36.2% / 2.76

Team Comparison

Predictions (AI) Prev

FactorGame
Potential: average goals Pregame estimate of total goals, based on historical data and AI, combining both teams. Example: 2.8 goals/game ≈ an estimate of 3 goals.3.28 goals
Over 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of 3+ goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 52% estimates Over 2.5 in about 52 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of over 2.5 goals58 %
Under 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of under 2.5 goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 55% estimates Under 2.5 in about 55 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of under 2.5 goals42 %

Season (baseline)

Game context (Home/Away)

Factor Cdt Real Oruro Home Club Aurora Away
Goals scored (home/away) Average goals scored per game in the relevant context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 6 goals in 4 games = 1.5 goals/game.1.7 goals/game1.09 goals/game
Goals conceded (home/away) Average goals conceded per game in the home/away context. Example: 5 goals conceded in 4 games = 1.25 goals/game.2.5 goals/game1.27 goals/game
xG for (home/away) Average chance quality created per game (xG) in the home/away context. Example: 1.6 xG per game means the team’s shots add up to 1.6 expected goals per game on average.1.41 xG/game1.45 xG/game

Overall (Season) Temp

Factor Cdt Real Oruro Club Aurora
Over 2.5 (season) Percentage of season games with over 2.5 goals. Example: 7 of 13 games = 54%.Season games with Over 2.5 %81 %52 %
Goals scored (overall) Average goals scored per game this season (home + away). Example: 20 goals in 13 games = 1.54 goals/game.1.67 goals/game1.57 goals/game
Shots on target / game Average shots on target per game this season (home + away). Example: 48 shots on target in 10 games = 4.8 per game.4.33 shots on target/game5.57 shots on target/game
Goals conceded (overall) Average goals conceded per game this season (home + away). Example: 15 goals in 13 games = 1.15 goals/game.2.43 goals/game1.38 goals/game

League (baseline) League

FactorLeague
League average goals Average goals per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 2.68 goals/game ≈ 2–3 goals per game.Average league goals per game (baseline)3.04 goals/game

Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5

Factor Cdt Real Oruro Club Aurora
Goals scored (last 5) Average goals scored per game in the last 5 games (recent form). Example: 9 goals in 5 games = 1.8 goals/game.1.2 goals/game1.6 goals/game
Goals conceded (last 5) Average goals conceded per game in the last 5 games (recent form). Example: 6 goals conceded in 5 games = 1.2 goals/game.1.6 goals/game1.2 goals/game

Head-to-head (H2H) These statistics use the teams' most recent head-to-head games, generally from the last 10 to 15 years.H2H Last 5

Factor Cdt Real Oruro Club Aurora
H2H: Over 2.5 % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 head-to-head games with over 2.5 goals. Example: 3 of 5 games = 60%.Recent H2H games with Over 2.566.7 %66.7 %

Market Both Teams to Score

#75298384
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.52 / 65.8%
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.45 / 69.0%
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-3.2 p.p.
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-4.6%

Odds Comparison

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Probability Models

YesNo
Predora Market Median 65.8% / 1.52 34.2% / 2.92

Team Comparison

Predictions (AI) Prev

FactorGame
Potential: BTTS (%) Pregame estimated probability of both teams scoring, based on historical data and AI. Example: 58% estimates that about 58 of 100 similar games would have goals from both teams.58 %
Over 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of 3+ goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 52% estimates Over 2.5 in about 52 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of over 2.5 goals58 %

Season baseline (Season)

Indicators associated with more BTTS outcomes

Factor Cdt Real Oruro Club Aurora
BTTS (season) % Percentage of season games in which both teams scored. Example: 7 of 12 games = 58%.76 %67 %
Games scoring 1+ goal % (season) Percentage of season games in which the team scored at least 1 goal. Example: scored in 10 of 12 games = 83%.81 %81 %
Games conceding 1+ goal % (season) Percentage of season games in which the team conceded at least 1 goal. Example: conceded in 8 of 12 games = 67%.95 %76 %

Indicators associated with fewer BTTS outcomes

Factor Cdt Real Oruro Club Aurora
Clean sheet % (season) Percentage of clean sheets, a factor associated with fewer Both Teams to Score outcomes. Example: 4 clean sheets in 12 games = 33%.5 %24 %
Failed to score % (season) Percentage of games without scoring, a factor associated with fewer Both Teams to Score outcomes. Example: no goals scored in 3 of 12 games = 25%.19 %19 %

Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5

Factor Cdt Real Oruro Club Aurora
Games scoring 1+ goal % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 games in which the team scored at least 1 goal. Example: scored in 4 of 5 = 80%.60 %80 %
Games conceding 1+ goal % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 games in which the team conceded at least 1 goal. Example: conceded in 3 of 5 = 60%.60 %60 %

Head-to-head (H2H) These statistics use the teams' most recent head-to-head games, generally from the last 10 to 15 years.H2H Last 5

FactorHead-to-head (H2H)
H2H: BTTS % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 head-to-head games in which both teams scored. Example: 3 of 5 games = 60%.100 %

Market Over 9.5 corners

#75298384
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.90 / 52.7%
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.76 / 57.0%
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-4.3 p.p.
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-7.5%

Odds Comparison

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Probability Models

OverUnder
Predora Market Median 47.3% / 2.11 52.7% / 1.90

Team Comparison

Predictions (AI) Prev

FactorGame
Potential: average corners Pregame estimate of total corners, based on historical data and AI. Example: 10.2 corners ≈ an estimate of 10 corners.9.3 corners
Potential Over 9.5 corners (%) Pregame estimated probability of 10+ corners, based on historical data and AI. Example: 58% estimates Over 9.5 in about 58 of 100 similar games.43 %

Season (baseline)

Game context (Home/Away)

Factor Cdt Real Oruro Home Club Aurora Away
Corners for (home/away) Average corners won per game in context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 24 corners in 6 games = 4.0 per game.4.3 corners/game5 corners/game
Total corners (home/away) Average total corners per game in context (both teams combined). Example: 60 corners in 6 games = 10.0 per game.10 corners/game8 corners/game

Overall (Season) Temp

Factor Cdt Real Oruro Club Aurora
Corners for (overall) Average corners won per game this season (home + away). Example: 40 in 10 games = 4.0 per game.4.33 corners/game5.43 corners/game
Total corners (overall) Average total corners per game this season (home + away). Example: 105 in 10 games = 10.5 per game.11.23 corners/game8.86 corners/game

League (baseline) League

FactorLeague
League average corners (corners/game) Average corners per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 9.3 corners/game ≈ 9–10 corners per game.9.67 corners/game

Cards

Team Comparison

Predictions (AI) Prev

FactorGame
Potential: average cards Pregame estimate of total cards, based on historical data and AI. Example: 4.8 cards ≈ an estimate of 5 cards.6.59 cards/game

Season baseline (Season) Temp

Factor Cdt Real Oruro Club Aurora
Total cards (average) Average cards per game this season (home + away). Example: 18 cards in 6 games = 3.0 cards/game.3.05 cards/game2.95 cards/game
Over 4.5 cards % Probability (or observed percentage, depending on the source) of 5+ cards in the game. Example: 60% estimates Over 4.5 in about 60 of 100 similar games.62 %81 %

League (baseline) League

FactorLeague
League average cards Average cards per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 4.3 cards/game ≈ 4–5 cards per game.5.67 cards/game
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