FA Cup

The Meadow · Amy Lane

Chesham United crestChesham United
4–3Finished
Real Bedford crestReal Bedford

Chesham United 4 x 3 Real Bedford: prediction analysis

The model predicted correctly 5 of 5 settled markets.

Correct predictions

  • 1x2: prediction Chesham United; result Chesham United 4–3.
  • Double Chance: prediction Chesham United or Real Bedford; result Chesham United 4–3.
  • Over 2.5 goals: prediction Over 2.5; result 7 goals.
  • Both Teams to Score: prediction Yes; result Yes.
  • Over 9.5 corners: prediction Over 9.5; result 11 corners.

Final assessment: For this game, most settled predictions matched the observed results.

View the analysis published before kickoff

Before the game, the model Predora Market Median estimated a 46.9% probability of a win for Chesham United, 21.9% for a draw, and 31.2% for a win for Real Bedford.

The bookmakers' consensus makes Chesham United the favorite, with odds ranging from 2.08 to 2.20, while Real Bedford is priced in the 2.75 to 2.90 range and the draw in the 3.40 to 4.09 range. The deterministic signals, on the other hand, point toward the away side, especially based on recent performance. This divergence indicates that the market is giving more weight to home advantage and the season, while the form data suggest Real Bedford is in better shape. The draw accounts for about 25% of the consensus and should not be ignored. The uncertainty here is moderate: the difference in readings may narrow as the match unfolds, but there is no guarantee that the market is pricing either side correctly.

See the full AI analysis with a free account.

Create free account Already have an account? Sign in

Market 1x2

#74976006
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
2.13 / 46.8%
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
2.12 / 47.2%
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-0.3 p.p.
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-0.7%

Odds Comparison

Bookmakers

Available with Predora Pro

Create free account Already have an account? Sign in

Probability Models

Chesham UnitedDrawReal Bedford
Predora Market Median 46.8% / 2.13 21.9% / 4.56 31.2% / 3.20

Market Double Chance

#74976006
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.28 / 78.1%
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.40 / 71.4%
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
+6.6 p.p.
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
+9.3%

Odds Comparison

Bookmakers

Available with Predora Pro

Create free account Already have an account? Sign in

Probability Models

1XX212
Predora Market Median 68.8% / 1.45 53.2% / 1.88 78.1% / 1.28

AI Analysis

Market and data aligned

Available with a free account

Create free account Already have an account? Sign in

Team Comparison

Outcome Strength (Season)

Game context (Home/Away)

Factor Chesham United Home Real Bedford Away
PPG (home/away) Average points per game in the relevant context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 6 points in 4 games = 1.5 points/game.Points per game in context (home team at home / away team away).3 pts/game3 pts/game
Win % (home/away) Win percentage in the relevant context (home for the home team, away for the away team). Example: 2 wins in 4 games = 50%.100 %100 %
Draw % (home/away) Draw percentage in the home/away context. Example: 1 draw in 4 games = 25%.0 %0 %
Goal difference (home/away) Average goal difference in context: goals scored minus goals conceded per game. Example: scored 6 and conceded 4 in 4 games → (6−4)/4 = +0.5.5 goals/game1 goals/game
xG difference (home/away) Average xG difference in context: xG for minus xG against per game. Example: 1.4 − 1.1 = +0.3 xG/game.0 xG/game0 xG/game

Season baseline (Overall) Temp

Factor Chesham United Real Bedford
PPG (overall) Average points per game this season (home + away). Example: 12 points in 8 games = 1.5 points/game.3 pts/game3 pts/game
Win % (overall) Win percentage this season (home + away). Example: 4 wins in 8 games = 50%.100 %100 %
Draw % (overall) Draw percentage this season (home + away). Example: 2 draws in 8 games = 25%.0 %0 %
Goal difference (overall) Average goal difference this season: (goals scored − goals conceded) / games. Example: 10−6 in 8 games → +0.5 per game.5 goals/game2 goals/game
xG difference (overall) Average xG difference this season: xG for minus xG against per game. Example: 1.6 − 1.2 = +0.4 xG/game.0 xG/game0 xG/game

Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5

Factor Chesham United Real Bedford
Form (last 5): W/D/L Results from the last 5 games: wins, draws, and losses. Example: 2–2–1 = 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss.3-0-23-0-2
PPG (last 5) Average points from the last 5 games. Example: 7 points in 5 games = 1.4 points/game.1.8 pts/game1.8 pts/game

Market Over 2.5 goals

#74976006
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.33 / 75.3%
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.34 / 74.6%
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
+0.7 p.p.
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
+0.9%

Odds Comparison

Bookmakers

Available with Predora Pro

Create free account Already have an account? Sign in

Probability Models

OverUnder
Predora Market Median 75.3% / 1.33 24.7% / 4.05

Team Comparison

Predictions (AI) Prev

FactorGame
Potential: average goals Pregame estimate of total goals, based on historical data and AI, combining both teams. Example: 2.8 goals/game ≈ an estimate of 3 goals.6.5 goals
Over 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of 3+ goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 52% estimates Over 2.5 in about 52 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of over 2.5 goals100 %
Under 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of under 2.5 goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 55% estimates Under 2.5 in about 55 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of under 2.5 goals0 %

Season (baseline)

Game context (Home/Away)

Factor Chesham United Home Real Bedford Away
Goals scored (home/away) Average goals scored per game in the relevant context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 6 goals in 4 games = 1.5 goals/game.7 goals/game2 goals/game
Goals conceded (home/away) Average goals conceded per game in the home/away context. Example: 5 goals conceded in 4 games = 1.25 goals/game.2 goals/game1 goals/game
xG for (home/away) Average chance quality created per game (xG) in the home/away context. Example: 1.6 xG per game means the team’s shots add up to 1.6 expected goals per game on average.0 xG/game0 xG/game

Overall (Season) Temp

Factor Chesham United Real Bedford
Over 2.5 (season) Percentage of season games with over 2.5 goals. Example: 7 of 13 games = 54%.Season games with Over 2.5 %100 %100 %
Goals scored (overall) Average goals scored per game this season (home + away). Example: 20 goals in 13 games = 1.54 goals/game.7 goals/game3 goals/game
Shots on target / game Average shots on target per game this season (home + away). Example: 48 shots on target in 10 games = 4.8 per game.0 shots on target/game0 shots on target/game
Goals conceded (overall) Average goals conceded per game this season (home + away). Example: 15 goals in 13 games = 1.15 goals/game.2 goals/game1 goals/game

League (baseline) League

FactorLeague
League average goals Average goals per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 2.68 goals/game ≈ 2–3 goals per game.Average league goals per game (baseline)3.31 goals/game

Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5

Factor Chesham United Real Bedford
Goals scored (last 5) Average goals scored per game in the last 5 games (recent form). Example: 9 goals in 5 games = 1.8 goals/game.5.5 goals/game3 goals/game
Goals conceded (last 5) Average goals conceded per game in the last 5 games (recent form). Example: 6 goals conceded in 5 games = 1.2 goals/game.2.5 goals/game2 goals/game

Market Both Teams to Score

#74976006
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.38 / 72.7%
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.35 / 74.1%
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-1.4 p.p.
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-1.9%

Odds Comparison

Bookmakers

Available with Predora Pro

Create free account Already have an account? Sign in

Probability Models

YesNo
Predora Market Median 72.7% / 1.38 27.3% / 3.66

Team Comparison

Predictions (AI) Prev

FactorGame
Potential: BTTS (%) Pregame estimated probability of both teams scoring, based on historical data and AI. Example: 58% estimates that about 58 of 100 similar games would have goals from both teams.100 %
Over 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of 3+ goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 52% estimates Over 2.5 in about 52 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of over 2.5 goals100 %

Season baseline (Season)

Indicators associated with more BTTS outcomes

Factor Chesham United Real Bedford
BTTS (season) % Percentage of season games in which both teams scored. Example: 7 of 12 games = 58%.100 %100 %
Games scoring 1+ goal % (season) Percentage of season games in which the team scored at least 1 goal. Example: scored in 10 of 12 games = 83%.100 %100 %
Games conceding 1+ goal % (season) Percentage of season games in which the team conceded at least 1 goal. Example: conceded in 8 of 12 games = 67%.100 %100 %

Indicators associated with fewer BTTS outcomes

Factor Chesham United Real Bedford
Clean sheet % (season) Percentage of clean sheets, a factor associated with fewer Both Teams to Score outcomes. Example: 4 clean sheets in 12 games = 33%.0 %0 %
Failed to score % (season) Percentage of games without scoring, a factor associated with fewer Both Teams to Score outcomes. Example: no goals scored in 3 of 12 games = 25%.0 %0 %

Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5

Factor Chesham United Real Bedford
Games scoring 1+ goal % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 games in which the team scored at least 1 goal. Example: scored in 4 of 5 = 80%.100 %100 %
Games conceding 1+ goal % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 games in which the team conceded at least 1 goal. Example: conceded in 3 of 5 = 60%.100 %100 %

Market Over 9.5 corners

#74976006
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.75 / 57.1%
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.59 / 62.9%
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-5.8 p.p.
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-9.1%

Odds Comparison

Bookmakers

Available with Predora Pro

Create free account Already have an account? Sign in

Probability Models

OverUnder
Predora Market Median 57.1% / 1.75 42.9% / 2.33

Team Comparison

Predictions (AI) Prev

FactorGame
Potential: average corners Pregame estimate of total corners, based on historical data and AI. Example: 10.2 corners ≈ an estimate of 10 corners.0 corners
Potential Over 9.5 corners (%) Pregame estimated probability of 10+ corners, based on historical data and AI. Example: 58% estimates Over 9.5 in about 58 of 100 similar games.0 %

Season (baseline)

Game context (Home/Away)

Factor Chesham United Home Real Bedford Away
Corners for (home/away) Average corners won per game in context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 24 corners in 6 games = 4.0 per game.0 corners/game0 corners/game
Total corners (home/away) Average total corners per game in context (both teams combined). Example: 60 corners in 6 games = 10.0 per game.0 corners/game0 corners/game

Overall (Season) Temp

Factor Chesham United Real Bedford
Corners for (overall) Average corners won per game this season (home + away). Example: 40 in 10 games = 4.0 per game.0 corners/game0 corners/game
Total corners (overall) Average total corners per game this season (home + away). Example: 105 in 10 games = 10.5 per game.0 corners/game0 corners/game

League (baseline) League

FactorLeague
League average corners (corners/game) Average corners per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 9.3 corners/game ≈ 9–10 corners per game.9.38 corners/game

Cards

Team Comparison

Predictions (AI) Prev

FactorGame
Potential: average cards Pregame estimate of total cards, based on historical data and AI. Example: 4.8 cards ≈ an estimate of 5 cards.-2 cards/game

Season baseline (Season) Temp

Factor Chesham United Real Bedford
Total cards (average) Average cards per game this season (home + away). Example: 18 cards in 6 games = 3.0 cards/game.0 cards/game0 cards/game
Over 4.5 cards % Probability (or observed percentage, depending on the source) of 5+ cards in the game. Example: 60% estimates Over 4.5 in about 60 of 100 similar games.0 %0 %

League (baseline) League

FactorLeague
League average cards Average cards per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 4.3 cards/game ≈ 4–5 cards per game.0 cards/game
View league
Scheduled
Dover Athletic FC
0–0
Wealdstone FC
Scheduled
Huddersfield Town
0–0
Exeter City
Scheduled
Kidderminster Harriers FC
0–0
Doncaster Rovers
Scheduled
Leyton Orient London
0–0
Harborough Town FC