Europa League

Selhurst Park · Holmesdale Road

Crystal Palace crestCrystal Palace
4–0Finished
KKS Lech Poznan crestKKS Lech Poznan

Crystal Palace 4 x 0 KKS Lech Poznan: prediction analysis

The model predicted correctly 3 of 5 settled markets.

Correct predictions

  • 1x2: prediction Crystal Palace; result Crystal Palace 4–0.
  • Double Chance: prediction Crystal Palace or draw; result Crystal Palace 4–0.
  • Over 2.5 goals: prediction Over 2.5; result 4 goals.

Incorrect predictions

  • Both Teams to Score: prediction Yes; result No.
  • Over 9.5 corners: prediction Under 9.5; result 11 corners.

Final assessment: For this game, most settled predictions matched the observed results.

View the analysis published before kickoff

Before the game, the model Predora Market Median estimated a 70.7% probability of a win for Crystal Palace, 18.0% for a draw, and 11.3% for a win for KKS Lech Poznan.

The bookmakers’ consensus makes Crystal Palace the clear favorite, with odds between 1.34 and 1.44 to win, while Lech Poznań is priced between 6.50 and 8.00. The draw is priced in the 4.50 to 5.22 range. The deterministic signals, on the other hand, point in the opposite direction, favoring the visitors in indicators such as home/away PPG, season PPG, and xG differential. This divergence is pronounced and noteworthy, but should be treated as a difference in interpretation between the models and the market, not as proof that the bookmakers are wrong. The uncertainty is even greater because the hosts have not played any home games this season, which reduces the basis for comparison.

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Market 1x2

#74172940
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.41 / 70.7%
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.52 / 65.8%
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
+4.9 p.p.
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
+7.4%

Odds Comparison

Bookmakers

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Probability Models

Crystal PalaceDrawKKS Lech Poznan
Predora Market Median 70.7% / 1.41 18.0% / 5.54 11.3% / 8.87

Market Double Chance

#74172940
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.13 / 88.7%
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.15 / 87.0%
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
+1.8 p.p.
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
+2.0%

Odds Comparison

Bookmakers

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Probability Models

1XX212
Predora Market Median 88.7% / 1.13 29.3% / 3.41 82.0% / 1.22

AI Analysis

Market and data diverge

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Team Comparison

Outcome Strength (Season)

Game context (Home/Away)

Factor Crystal Palace Home KKS Lech Poznan Away
PPG (home/away) Average points per game in the relevant context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 6 points in 4 games = 1.5 points/game.Points per game in context (home team at home / away team away).0 pts/game2 pts/game
Win % (home/away) Win percentage in the relevant context (home for the home team, away for the away team). Example: 2 wins in 4 games = 50%.—50 %
Draw % (home/away) Draw percentage in the home/away context. Example: 1 draw in 4 games = 25%.—50 %
Goal difference (home/away) Average goal difference in context: goals scored minus goals conceded per game. Example: scored 6 and conceded 4 in 4 games → (6−4)/4 = +0.5.4 goals/game0.33 goals/game
xG difference (home/away) Average xG difference in context: xG for minus xG against per game. Example: 1.4 − 1.1 = +0.3 xG/game.-0.11 xG/game0.57 xG/game

Season baseline (Overall) Temp

Factor Crystal Palace KKS Lech Poznan
PPG (overall) Average points per game this season (home + away). Example: 12 points in 8 games = 1.5 points/game.0 pts/game2.5 pts/game
Win % (overall) Win percentage this season (home + away). Example: 4 wins in 8 games = 50%.—75 %
Draw % (overall) Draw percentage this season (home + away). Example: 2 draws in 8 games = 25%.—25 %
Goal difference (overall) Average goal difference this season: (goals scored − goals conceded) / games. Example: 10−6 in 8 games → +0.5 per game.4 goals/game1.8 goals/game
xG difference (overall) Average xG difference this season: xG for minus xG against per game. Example: 1.6 − 1.2 = +0.4 xG/game.-0.11 xG/game0.94 xG/game

Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5

Factor Crystal Palace KKS Lech Poznan
Form (last 5): W/D/L Results from the last 5 games: wins, draws, and losses. Example: 2–2–1 = 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss.2-0-33-1-1
PPG (last 5) Average points from the last 5 games. Example: 7 points in 5 games = 1.4 points/game.1.2 pts/game2 pts/game

Market Over 2.5 goals

#74172940
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.53 / 65.6%
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.45 / 69.0%
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-3.4 p.p.
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-4.9%

Odds Comparison

Bookmakers

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Probability Models

OverUnder
Predora Market Median 65.6% / 1.53 34.4% / 2.90

Team Comparison

Predictions (AI) Prev

FactorGame
Potential: average goals Pregame estimate of total goals, based on historical data and AI, combining both teams. Example: 2.8 goals/game ≈ an estimate of 3 goals.2.13 goals
Over 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of 3+ goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 52% estimates Over 2.5 in about 52 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of over 2.5 goals38 %
Under 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of under 2.5 goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 55% estimates Under 2.5 in about 55 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of under 2.5 goals13 %

Season (baseline)

Game context (Home/Away)

Factor Crystal Palace Home KKS Lech Poznan Away
Goals scored (home/away) Average goals scored per game in the relevant context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 6 goals in 4 games = 1.5 goals/game.0 goals/game3.5 goals/game
Goals conceded (home/away) Average goals conceded per game in the home/away context. Example: 5 goals conceded in 4 games = 1.25 goals/game.0 goals/game1 goals/game
xG for (home/away) Average chance quality created per game (xG) in the home/away context. Example: 1.6 xG per game means the team’s shots add up to 1.6 expected goals per game on average.0 xG/game1.93 xG/game

Overall (Season) Temp

Factor Crystal Palace KKS Lech Poznan
Over 2.5 (season) Percentage of season games with over 2.5 goals. Example: 7 of 13 games = 54%.Season games with Over 2.5 %0 %75 %
Goals scored (overall) Average goals scored per game this season (home + away). Example: 20 goals in 13 games = 1.54 goals/game.0 goals/game3.75 goals/game
Shots on target / game Average shots on target per game this season (home + away). Example: 48 shots on target in 10 games = 4.8 per game.0 shots on target/game7.75 shots on target/game
Goals conceded (overall) Average goals conceded per game this season (home + away). Example: 15 goals in 13 games = 1.15 goals/game.0 goals/game0.5 goals/game

League (baseline) League

FactorLeague
League average goals Average goals per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 2.68 goals/game ≈ 2–3 goals per game.Average league goals per game (baseline)2.72 goals/game

Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5

Factor Crystal Palace KKS Lech Poznan
Goals scored (last 5) Average goals scored per game in the last 5 games (recent form). Example: 9 goals in 5 games = 1.8 goals/game.4 goals/game3 goals/game
Goals conceded (last 5) Average goals conceded per game in the last 5 games (recent form). Example: 6 goals conceded in 5 games = 1.2 goals/game.0 goals/game1.2 goals/game

Market Both Teams to Score

#74172940
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.72 / 58.3%
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.65 / 60.7%
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-2.4 p.p.
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-4.0%

Odds Comparison

Bookmakers

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Probability Models

YesNo
Predora Market Median 58.3% / 1.72 41.7% / 2.40

Team Comparison

Predictions (AI) Prev

FactorGame
Potential: BTTS (%) Pregame estimated probability of both teams scoring, based on historical data and AI. Example: 58% estimates that about 58 of 100 similar games would have goals from both teams.13 %
Over 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of 3+ goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 52% estimates Over 2.5 in about 52 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of over 2.5 goals38 %

Season baseline (Season)

Indicators associated with more BTTS outcomes

Factor Crystal Palace KKS Lech Poznan
BTTS (season) % Percentage of season games in which both teams scored. Example: 7 of 12 games = 58%.0 %25 %
Games scoring 1+ goal % (season) Percentage of season games in which the team scored at least 1 goal. Example: scored in 10 of 12 games = 83%.100 %100 %
Games conceding 1+ goal % (season) Percentage of season games in which the team conceded at least 1 goal. Example: conceded in 8 of 12 games = 67%.100 %25 %

Indicators associated with fewer BTTS outcomes

Factor Crystal Palace KKS Lech Poznan
Clean sheet % (season) Percentage of clean sheets, a factor associated with fewer Both Teams to Score outcomes. Example: 4 clean sheets in 12 games = 33%.0 %75 %
Failed to score % (season) Percentage of games without scoring, a factor associated with fewer Both Teams to Score outcomes. Example: no goals scored in 3 of 12 games = 25%.0 %0 %

Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5

Factor Crystal Palace KKS Lech Poznan
Games scoring 1+ goal % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 games in which the team scored at least 1 goal. Example: scored in 4 of 5 = 80%.100 %80 %
Games conceding 1+ goal % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 games in which the team conceded at least 1 goal. Example: conceded in 3 of 5 = 60%.0 %40 %

Market Over 9.5 corners

#74172940
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.90 / 52.5%
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.82 / 54.9%
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-2.4 p.p.
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-4.4%

Odds Comparison

Bookmakers

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Probability Models

OverUnder
Predora Market Median 47.5% / 2.11 52.5% / 1.90

Team Comparison

Predictions (AI) Prev

FactorGame
Potential: average corners Pregame estimate of total corners, based on historical data and AI. Example: 10.2 corners ≈ an estimate of 10 corners.5.5 corners
Potential Over 9.5 corners (%) Pregame estimated probability of 10+ corners, based on historical data and AI. Example: 58% estimates Over 9.5 in about 58 of 100 similar games.13 %

Season (baseline)

Game context (Home/Away)

Factor Crystal Palace Home KKS Lech Poznan Away
Corners for (home/away) Average corners won per game in context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 24 corners in 6 games = 4.0 per game.0 corners/game6 corners/game
Total corners (home/away) Average total corners per game in context (both teams combined). Example: 60 corners in 6 games = 10.0 per game.0 corners/game11 corners/game

Overall (Season) Temp

Factor Crystal Palace KKS Lech Poznan
Corners for (overall) Average corners won per game this season (home + away). Example: 40 in 10 games = 4.0 per game.0 corners/game5.5 corners/game
Total corners (overall) Average total corners per game this season (home + away). Example: 105 in 10 games = 10.5 per game.0 corners/game9.75 corners/game

League (baseline) League

FactorLeague
League average corners (corners/game) Average corners per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 9.3 corners/game ≈ 9–10 corners per game.9.97 corners/game

Cards

Team Comparison

Predictions (AI) Prev

FactorGame
Potential: average cards Pregame estimate of total cards, based on historical data and AI. Example: 4.8 cards ≈ an estimate of 5 cards.1.75 cards/game

Season baseline (Season) Temp

Factor Crystal Palace KKS Lech Poznan
Total cards (average) Average cards per game this season (home + away). Example: 18 cards in 6 games = 3.0 cards/game.0 cards/game1.75 cards/game
Over 4.5 cards % Probability (or observed percentage, depending on the source) of 5+ cards in the game. Example: 60% estimates Over 4.5 in about 60 of 100 similar games.0 %75 %

League (baseline) League

FactorLeague
League average cards Average cards per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 4.3 cards/game ≈ 4–5 cards per game.4.13 cards/game
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