Estadio Yankel Rosenthal · Colonia de San José
CD Marathon San Pedro Sula5–0Finished
CD Estrella RojaCD Marathon San Pedro Sula 5 x 0 CD Estrella Roja: prediction analysis
The model predicted correctly 3 of 5 settled markets.
Correct predictions
- 1x2: prediction CD Marathon San Pedro Sula; result CD Marathon San Pedro Sula 5–0.
- Double Chance: prediction CD Marathon San Pedro Sula or draw; result CD Marathon San Pedro Sula 5–0.
- Both Teams to Score: prediction No; result No.
Incorrect predictions
- Over 2.5 goals: prediction Under 2.5; result 5 goals.
- Over 9.5 corners: prediction Under 9.5; result 15 corners.
Final assessment: For this game, most settled predictions matched the observed results.
View the analysis published before kickoff
Before the game, the model Predora Market Median estimated a 55.4% probability of a win for CD Marathon San Pedro Sula, 25.9% for a draw, and 18.7% for a win for CD Estrella Roja.
The 1X2 market is clearly leaning toward CD Marathon San Pedro Sula: the home win odds range from 1.50 to 1.57 across the 10 bookmakers analyzed, while the draw is priced at 3.50–3.90 and an Estrella Roja win at 4.75–5.45. In relative terms, after separating out the draw (about 24.3% of the consensus), the market assigns approximately 77% of the strength to the home side and 23% to the visitors.
Our signals also point to the home side, but less strongly: about 61% relative strength for the home side versus 39% for the visitors. The alignment is only partial—the direction is the same, but the market is more confident than the indicators support. The main data behind this view are the home/away xG differential (0.95 for the home side versus 0.16 for the visitors) and season PPG (2.2 versus 1.6).
By contrast, home/away PPG is identical for both sides (2.0), which explains part of the divergence. The draw remains a significant possibility, as the consensus assigns it about a quarter of the implied probability. In short, the direction is aligned, but the gap between market enthusiasm and the more moderate signals leaves room for uncertainty—mainly because Estrella Roja has shown consistency away from home and the visitors’ odds may not fully reflect this balance in some contexts.
Market 1x2
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.81 / 55.4% Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.65 / 60.6% Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-5.3 p.p.Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-8.7%Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
Odds Comparison
Bookmakers
Available with Predora Pro
Create free account Already have an account? Sign in
Probability Models
| Model | CD Marathon San Pedro Sula | Draw | CD Estrella Roja |
|---|---|---|---|
| Predora Market Median | 55.4% / 1.81 | 25.9% / 3.86 | 18.7% / 5.34 |
Market Double Chance
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.23 / 81.3% Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.17 / 85.8% Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-4.5 p.p.Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-5.2%Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
Odds Comparison
Bookmakers
Available with Predora Pro
Create free account Already have an account? Sign in
Probability Models
| Model | 1X | X2 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Predora Market Median | 81.3% / 1.23 | 44.7% / 2.24 | 74.1% / 1.35 |
AI Analysis
Market and data partially alignedAvailable with a free account
Create free account Already have an account? Sign in
Team Comparison
Outcome Strength (Season)
Game context (Home/Away)
| Factor | CD Marathon San Pedro Sula Home | CD Estrella Roja Away |
|---|---|---|
| PPG (home/away) Average points per game in the relevant context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 6 points in 4 games = 1.5 points/game.Points per game in context (home team at home / away team away). | 2 pts/game | 2 pts/game |
| Win % (home/away) Win percentage in the relevant context (home for the home team, away for the away team). Example: 2 wins in 4 games = 50%. | 50 % | 50 % |
| Draw % (home/away) Draw percentage in the home/away context. Example: 1 draw in 4 games = 25%. | 50 % | 50 % |
| Goal difference (home/away) Average goal difference in context: goals scored minus goals conceded per game. Example: scored 6 and conceded 4 in 4 games → (6−4)/4 = +0.5. | 0.5 goals/game | 1 goals/game |
| xG difference (home/away) Average xG difference in context: xG for minus xG against per game. Example: 1.4 − 1.1 = +0.3 xG/game. | 0.95 xG/game | 0.16 xG/game |
Season baseline (Overall) Temp
| Factor | CD Marathon San Pedro Sula | CD Estrella Roja |
|---|---|---|
| PPG (overall) Average points per game this season (home + away). Example: 12 points in 8 games = 1.5 points/game. | 2.2 pts/game | 1.6 pts/game |
| Win % (overall) Win percentage this season (home + away). Example: 4 wins in 8 games = 50%. | 60 % | 40 % |
| Draw % (overall) Draw percentage this season (home + away). Example: 2 draws in 8 games = 25%. | 40 % | 40 % |
| Goal difference (overall) Average goal difference this season: (goals scored − goals conceded) / games. Example: 10−6 in 8 games → +0.5 per game. | 0.6 goals/game | 0.8 goals/game |
| xG difference (overall) Average xG difference this season: xG for minus xG against per game. Example: 1.6 − 1.2 = +0.4 xG/game. | 0.45 xG/game | 0.38 xG/game |
Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5
| Factor | CD Marathon San Pedro Sula | CD Estrella Roja |
|---|---|---|
| Form (last 5): W/D/L Results from the last 5 games: wins, draws, and losses. Example: 2–2–1 = 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss. | 3-2-0 | 2-2-1 |
| PPG (last 5) Average points from the last 5 games. Example: 7 points in 5 games = 1.4 points/game. | 2.2 pts/game | 1.6 pts/game |
Market Over 2.5 goals
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.91 / 52.4% Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.88 / 53.3% Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-1.0 p.p.Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-1.8%Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
Odds Comparison
Bookmakers
Available with Predora Pro
Create free account Already have an account? Sign in
Probability Models
| Model | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Predora Market Median | 47.6% / 2.10 | 52.4% / 1.91 |
Team Comparison
Predictions (AI) Prev
| Factor | Game |
|---|---|
| Potential: average goals Pregame estimate of total goals, based on historical data and AI, combining both teams. Example: 2.8 goals/game ≈ an estimate of 3 goals. | 2.7 goals |
| Over 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of 3+ goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 52% estimates Over 2.5 in about 52 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of over 2.5 goals | 40 % |
| Under 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of under 2.5 goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 55% estimates Under 2.5 in about 55 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of under 2.5 goals | 60 % |
Season (baseline)
Game context (Home/Away)
| Factor | CD Marathon San Pedro Sula Home | CD Estrella Roja Away |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored (home/away) Average goals scored per game in the relevant context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 6 goals in 4 games = 1.5 goals/game. | 1 goals/game | 2 goals/game |
| Goals conceded (home/away) Average goals conceded per game in the home/away context. Example: 5 goals conceded in 4 games = 1.25 goals/game. | 0.5 goals/game | 1 goals/game |
| xG for (home/away) Average chance quality created per game (xG) in the home/away context. Example: 1.6 xG per game means the team’s shots add up to 1.6 expected goals per game on average. | 1.8 xG/game | 1.42 xG/game |
Overall (Season) Temp
| Factor | CD Marathon San Pedro Sula | CD Estrella Roja |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 (season) Percentage of season games with over 2.5 goals. Example: 7 of 13 games = 54%.Season games with Over 2.5 % | 20 % | 60 % |
| Goals scored (overall) Average goals scored per game this season (home + away). Example: 20 goals in 13 games = 1.54 goals/game. | 1.2 goals/game | 2.2 goals/game |
| Shots on target / game Average shots on target per game this season (home + away). Example: 48 shots on target in 10 games = 4.8 per game. | 5 shots on target/game | 5.8 shots on target/game |
| Goals conceded (overall) Average goals conceded per game this season (home + away). Example: 15 goals in 13 games = 1.15 goals/game. | 0.6 goals/game | 1.4 goals/game |
League (baseline) League
| Factor | League |
|---|---|
| League average goals Average goals per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 2.68 goals/game ≈ 2–3 goals per game.Average league goals per game (baseline) | 2.63 goals/game |
Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5
| Factor | CD Marathon San Pedro Sula | CD Estrella Roja |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored (last 5) Average goals scored per game in the last 5 games (recent form). Example: 9 goals in 5 games = 1.8 goals/game. | 1.2 goals/game | 2.2 goals/game |
| Goals conceded (last 5) Average goals conceded per game in the last 5 games (recent form). Example: 6 goals conceded in 5 games = 1.2 goals/game. | 0.6 goals/game | 1.4 goals/game |
Market Both Teams to Score
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.93 / 51.9% Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.78 / 56.2% Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-4.3 p.p.Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-7.6%Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
Odds Comparison
Bookmakers
Available with Predora Pro
Create free account Already have an account? Sign in
Probability Models
| Model | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Predora Market Median | 48.1% / 2.08 | 51.9% / 1.93 |
Team Comparison
Predictions (AI) Prev
| Factor | Game |
|---|---|
| Potential: BTTS (%) Pregame estimated probability of both teams scoring, based on historical data and AI. Example: 58% estimates that about 58 of 100 similar games would have goals from both teams. | 60 % |
| Over 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of 3+ goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 52% estimates Over 2.5 in about 52 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of over 2.5 goals | 40 % |
Season baseline (Season)
Indicators associated with more BTTS outcomes
| Factor | CD Marathon San Pedro Sula | CD Estrella Roja |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS (season) % Percentage of season games in which both teams scored. Example: 7 of 12 games = 58%. | 60 % | 60 % |
| Games scoring 1+ goal % (season) Percentage of season games in which the team scored at least 1 goal. Example: scored in 10 of 12 games = 83%. | 100 % | 80 % |
| Games conceding 1+ goal % (season) Percentage of season games in which the team conceded at least 1 goal. Example: conceded in 8 of 12 games = 67%. | 60 % | 80 % |
Indicators associated with fewer BTTS outcomes
| Factor | CD Marathon San Pedro Sula | CD Estrella Roja |
|---|---|---|
| Clean sheet % (season) Percentage of clean sheets, a factor associated with fewer Both Teams to Score outcomes. Example: 4 clean sheets in 12 games = 33%. | 40 % | 20 % |
| Failed to score % (season) Percentage of games without scoring, a factor associated with fewer Both Teams to Score outcomes. Example: no goals scored in 3 of 12 games = 25%. | 0 % | 20 % |
Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5
| Factor | CD Marathon San Pedro Sula | CD Estrella Roja |
|---|---|---|
| Games scoring 1+ goal % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 games in which the team scored at least 1 goal. Example: scored in 4 of 5 = 80%. | 100 % | 80 % |
| Games conceding 1+ goal % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 games in which the team conceded at least 1 goal. Example: conceded in 3 of 5 = 60%. | 60 % | 80 % |
Market Over 9.5 corners
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.95 / 51.4% Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.80 / 55.6% Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-4.2 p.p.Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-7.6%Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
Odds Comparison
Bookmakers
Available with Predora Pro
Create free account Already have an account? Sign in
Probability Models
| Model | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Predora Market Median | 48.6% / 2.06 | 51.4% / 1.95 |
Team Comparison
Predictions (AI) Prev
| Factor | Game |
|---|---|
| Potential: average corners Pregame estimate of total corners, based on historical data and AI. Example: 10.2 corners ≈ an estimate of 10 corners. | 9.8 corners |
| Potential Over 9.5 corners (%) Pregame estimated probability of 10+ corners, based on historical data and AI. Example: 58% estimates Over 9.5 in about 58 of 100 similar games. | 40 % |
Season (baseline)
Game context (Home/Away)
| Factor | CD Marathon San Pedro Sula Home | CD Estrella Roja Away |
|---|---|---|
| Corners for (home/away) Average corners won per game in context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 24 corners in 6 games = 4.0 per game. | 5 corners/game | 3 corners/game |
| Total corners (home/away) Average total corners per game in context (both teams combined). Example: 60 corners in 6 games = 10.0 per game. | 6 corners/game | 9 corners/game |
Overall (Season) Temp
| Factor | CD Marathon San Pedro Sula | CD Estrella Roja |
|---|---|---|
| Corners for (overall) Average corners won per game this season (home + away). Example: 40 in 10 games = 4.0 per game. | 5.8 corners/game | 4 corners/game |
| Total corners (overall) Average total corners per game this season (home + away). Example: 105 in 10 games = 10.5 per game. | 10.4 corners/game | 9.8 corners/game |
League (baseline) League
| Factor | League |
|---|---|
| League average corners (corners/game) Average corners per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 9.3 corners/game ≈ 9–10 corners per game. | 9.88 corners/game |
Cards
Team Comparison
Predictions (AI) Prev
| Factor | Game |
|---|---|
| Potential: average cards Pregame estimate of total cards, based on historical data and AI. Example: 4.8 cards ≈ an estimate of 5 cards. | -0.2 cards/game |
Season baseline (Season) Temp
| Factor | CD Marathon San Pedro Sula | CD Estrella Roja |
|---|---|---|
| Total cards (average) Average cards per game this season (home + away). Example: 18 cards in 6 games = 3.0 cards/game. | 0 cards/game | 0 cards/game |
| Over 4.5 cards % Probability (or observed percentage, depending on the source) of 5+ cards in the game. Example: 60% estimates Over 4.5 in about 60 of 100 similar games. | 0 % | 0 % |
League (baseline) League
| Factor | League |
|---|---|
| League average cards Average cards per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 4.3 cards/game ≈ 4–5 cards per game. | 0 cards/game |
Juticalpa FC
Lobos UPNFM
FC Motagua Tegucigalpa
CD Olimpia Tegucigalpa
Olancho FC
Platense FC Puerto Cortes
CD Genesis PN