Arena MRV · Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
Atlético Mineiro2–1Finished
CruzeiroAtlético Mineiro 2 x 1 Cruzeiro: prediction analysis
The model predicted correctly 3 of 5 settled markets.
Correct predictions
- 1x2: prediction Atlético Mineiro; result Atlético Mineiro 2–1.
- Double Chance: prediction Atlético Mineiro or draw; result Atlético Mineiro 2–1.
- Over 9.5 corners: prediction Over 9.5; result 10 corners.
Incorrect predictions
- Over 2.5 goals: prediction Under 2.5; result 3 goals.
- Both Teams to Score: prediction No; result Yes.
Final assessment: For this game, most settled predictions matched the observed results.
View the analysis published before kickoff
Before the game, the model Predora Market Median estimated a 37.5% probability of a win for Atlético Mineiro, 31.3% for a draw, and 31.2% for a win for Cruzeiro.
Bookmakers have set a tight market, with Atlético-MG only a narrow favorite. The home side’s odds range from 2.37 to 2.56 at most of the 10 bookmakers analyzed, while the draw and a Cruzeiro win are priced very similarly, both in the 2.85 to 3.20 range. This indicates that the market sees a game likely to be decided by fine margins, with the draw accounting for about 31% of the implied probability.
The deterministic signals point in the same direction as the bookmakers: the contextual indicators (home/away PPG and home xG differential) and recent form favor Atlético, while the overall season numbers and xG differential lean toward Cruzeiro. In the aggregate tally, the signals give the home side a relative advantage (60.8% against 39.2%), very close to the market reading (55.4% against 44.6%).
The alignment between the data and pricing reinforces the view that Atlético is the more consistent side to win, but the difference is small. Cruzeiro’s away performance and the historical balance between the teams leave room for a draw or an away-side surprise, especially if the visiting team’s chance creation translates into goals. The uncertainty here is real: the market is not treating any of the three outcomes as dominant.
Market 1x2
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
2.67 / 37.5% Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
2.70 / 37.0% Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
+0.5 p.p.Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
+1.3%Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
Odds Comparison
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Probability Models
| Model | Atlético Mineiro | Draw | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|---|
| Predora Market Median | 37.5% / 2.67 | 31.3% / 3.20 | 31.3% / 3.20 |
Market Double Chance
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.45 / 68.8% Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.42 / 70.4% Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-1.7 p.p.Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-2.4%Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
Odds Comparison
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Probability Models
| Model | 1X | X2 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Predora Market Median | 68.8% / 1.45 | 62.5% / 1.60 | 68.8% / 1.45 |
AI Analysis
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head (H2H) These statistics use the teams' most recent head-to-head games, generally from the last 10 to 15 years.H2H Last 5
| Factor | Atlético Mineiro | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| H2H: W/D/L (last 5) Results from the last 5 head-to-head games between the teams. Example: 3–1–1 = 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss for the team on the left. | 2-2-1 | 1-2-2 |
| H2H: win % (home vs. away) (last 5) Head-to-head win percentage (last 5), split by home and away team. Example: the home team won 3 of 5 = 60%. | 40 % | 20 % |
Outcome Strength (Season)
Game context (Home/Away)
| Factor | Atlético Mineiro Home | Cruzeiro Away |
|---|---|---|
| PPG (home/away) Average points per game in the relevant context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 6 points in 4 games = 1.5 points/game.Points per game in context (home team at home / away team away). | 2 pts/game | 1 pts/game |
| Win % (home/away) Win percentage in the relevant context (home for the home team, away for the away team). Example: 2 wins in 4 games = 50%. | 50 % | 0 % |
| Draw % (home/away) Draw percentage in the home/away context. Example: 1 draw in 4 games = 25%. | 50 % | 100 % |
| Goal difference (home/away) Average goal difference in context: goals scored minus goals conceded per game. Example: scored 6 and conceded 4 in 4 games → (6−4)/4 = +0.5. | 0.5 goals/game | 0 goals/game |
| xG difference (home/away) Average xG difference in context: xG for minus xG against per game. Example: 1.4 − 1.1 = +0.3 xG/game. | 1.22 xG/game | 0.1 xG/game |
Season baseline (Overall) Temp
| Factor | Atlético Mineiro | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| PPG (overall) Average points per game this season (home + away). Example: 12 points in 8 games = 1.5 points/game. | 1.6 pts/game | 1.8 pts/game |
| Win % (overall) Win percentage this season (home + away). Example: 4 wins in 8 games = 50%. | 40 % | 40 % |
| Draw % (overall) Draw percentage this season (home + away). Example: 2 draws in 8 games = 25%. | 40 % | 60 % |
| Goal difference (overall) Average goal difference this season: (goals scored − goals conceded) / games. Example: 10−6 in 8 games → +0.5 per game. | 0.2 goals/game | 0.6 goals/game |
| xG difference (overall) Average xG difference this season: xG for minus xG against per game. Example: 1.6 − 1.2 = +0.4 xG/game. | 0.24 xG/game | 0.86 xG/game |
Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5
| Factor | Atlético Mineiro | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| Form (last 5): W/D/L Results from the last 5 games: wins, draws, and losses. Example: 2–2–1 = 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss. | 2-3-0 | 2-1-2 |
| PPG (last 5) Average points from the last 5 games. Example: 7 points in 5 games = 1.4 points/game. | 1.8 pts/game | 1.4 pts/game |
Market Over 2.5 goals
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.63 / 61.5% Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.60 / 62.5% Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-1.0 p.p.Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-1.7%Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
Odds Comparison
Bookmakers
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Probability Models
| Model | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Predora Market Median | 38.5% / 2.60 | 61.5% / 1.63 |
Team Comparison
Predictions (AI) Prev
| Factor | Game |
|---|---|
| Potential: average goals Pregame estimate of total goals, based on historical data and AI, combining both teams. Example: 2.8 goals/game ≈ an estimate of 3 goals. | 1.8 goals |
| Over 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of 3+ goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 52% estimates Over 2.5 in about 52 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of over 2.5 goals | 30 % |
| Under 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of under 2.5 goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 55% estimates Under 2.5 in about 55 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of under 2.5 goals | 70 % |
Season (baseline)
Game context (Home/Away)
| Factor | Atlético Mineiro Home | Cruzeiro Away |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored (home/away) Average goals scored per game in the relevant context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 6 goals in 4 games = 1.5 goals/game. | 1 goals/game | 1 goals/game |
| Goals conceded (home/away) Average goals conceded per game in the home/away context. Example: 5 goals conceded in 4 games = 1.25 goals/game. | 0.5 goals/game | 1 goals/game |
| xG for (home/away) Average chance quality created per game (xG) in the home/away context. Example: 1.6 xG per game means the team’s shots add up to 1.6 expected goals per game on average. | 2.16 xG/game | 1.59 xG/game |
Overall (Season) Temp
| Factor | Atlético Mineiro | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 (season) Percentage of season games with over 2.5 goals. Example: 7 of 13 games = 54%.Season games with Over 2.5 % | 40 % | 20 % |
| Goals scored (overall) Average goals scored per game this season (home + away). Example: 20 goals in 13 games = 1.54 goals/game. | 1 goals/game | 1.2 goals/game |
| Shots on target / game Average shots on target per game this season (home + away). Example: 48 shots on target in 10 games = 4.8 per game. | 4.6 shots on target/game | 5.8 shots on target/game |
| Goals conceded (overall) Average goals conceded per game this season (home + away). Example: 15 goals in 13 games = 1.15 goals/game. | 0.8 goals/game | 0.6 goals/game |
League (baseline) League
| Factor | League |
|---|---|
| League average goals Average goals per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 2.68 goals/game ≈ 2–3 goals per game.Average league goals per game (baseline) | 2.12 goals/game |
Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5
| Factor | Atlético Mineiro | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored (last 5) Average goals scored per game in the last 5 games (recent form). Example: 9 goals in 5 games = 1.8 goals/game. | 1 goals/game | 1.2 goals/game |
| Goals conceded (last 5) Average goals conceded per game in the last 5 games (recent form). Example: 6 goals conceded in 5 games = 1.2 goals/game. | 0.8 goals/game | 0.6 goals/game |
Head-to-head (H2H) These statistics use the teams' most recent head-to-head games, generally from the last 10 to 15 years.H2H Last 5
| Factor | Atlético Mineiro | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| H2H: Over 2.5 % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 head-to-head games with over 2.5 goals. Example: 3 of 5 games = 60%.Recent H2H games with Over 2.5 | 40 % | 40 % |
Market Both Teams to Score
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.88 / 53.1% Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.86 / 53.8% Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-0.7 p.p.Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-1.3%Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
Odds Comparison
Bookmakers
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Probability Models
| Model | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Predora Market Median | 46.9% / 2.13 | 53.1% / 1.88 |
Team Comparison
Predictions (AI) Prev
| Factor | Game |
|---|---|
| Potential: BTTS (%) Pregame estimated probability of both teams scoring, based on historical data and AI. Example: 58% estimates that about 58 of 100 similar games would have goals from both teams. | 50 % |
| Over 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of 3+ goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 52% estimates Over 2.5 in about 52 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of over 2.5 goals | 30 % |
Season baseline (Season)
Indicators associated with more BTTS outcomes
| Factor | Atlético Mineiro | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS (season) % Percentage of season games in which both teams scored. Example: 7 of 12 games = 58%. | 60 % | 40 % |
| Games scoring 1+ goal % (season) Percentage of season games in which the team scored at least 1 goal. Example: scored in 10 of 12 games = 83%. | 80 % | 80 % |
| Games conceding 1+ goal % (season) Percentage of season games in which the team conceded at least 1 goal. Example: conceded in 8 of 12 games = 67%. | 60 % | 40 % |
Indicators associated with fewer BTTS outcomes
| Factor | Atlético Mineiro | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| Clean sheet % (season) Percentage of clean sheets, a factor associated with fewer Both Teams to Score outcomes. Example: 4 clean sheets in 12 games = 33%. | 40 % | 60 % |
| Failed to score % (season) Percentage of games without scoring, a factor associated with fewer Both Teams to Score outcomes. Example: no goals scored in 3 of 12 games = 25%. | 20 % | 20 % |
Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5
| Factor | Atlético Mineiro | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| Games scoring 1+ goal % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 games in which the team scored at least 1 goal. Example: scored in 4 of 5 = 80%. | 80 % | 80 % |
| Games conceding 1+ goal % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 games in which the team conceded at least 1 goal. Example: conceded in 3 of 5 = 60%. | 60 % | 40 % |
Head-to-head (H2H) These statistics use the teams' most recent head-to-head games, generally from the last 10 to 15 years.H2H Last 5
| Factor | Head-to-head (H2H) |
|---|---|
| H2H: BTTS % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 head-to-head games in which both teams scored. Example: 3 of 5 games = 60%. | 80 % |
Market Over 9.5 corners
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.99 / 50.3% Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.83 / 54.6% Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-4.4 p.p.Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-8.0%Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
Odds Comparison
Bookmakers
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Probability Models
| Model | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Predora Market Median | 50.3% / 1.99 | 49.7% / 2.01 |
Team Comparison
Predictions (AI) Prev
| Factor | Game |
|---|---|
| Potential: average corners Pregame estimate of total corners, based on historical data and AI. Example: 10.2 corners ≈ an estimate of 10 corners. | 13.8 corners |
| Potential Over 9.5 corners (%) Pregame estimated probability of 10+ corners, based on historical data and AI. Example: 58% estimates Over 9.5 in about 58 of 100 similar games. | 40 % |
Season (baseline)
Game context (Home/Away)
| Factor | Atlético Mineiro Home | Cruzeiro Away |
|---|---|---|
| Corners for (home/away) Average corners won per game in context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 24 corners in 6 games = 4.0 per game. | 9.5 corners/game | 5 corners/game |
| Total corners (home/away) Average total corners per game in context (both teams combined). Example: 60 corners in 6 games = 10.0 per game. | 10 corners/game | 9.5 corners/game |
Overall (Season) Temp
| Factor | Atlético Mineiro | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| Corners for (overall) Average corners won per game this season (home + away). Example: 40 in 10 games = 4.0 per game. | 5.8 corners/game | 8 corners/game |
| Total corners (overall) Average total corners per game this season (home + away). Example: 105 in 10 games = 10.5 per game. | 8 corners/game | 12.6 corners/game |
League (baseline) League
| Factor | League |
|---|---|
| League average corners (corners/game) Average corners per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 9.3 corners/game ≈ 9–10 corners per game. | 9.46 corners/game |
Cards
Team Comparison
Predictions (AI) Prev
| Factor | Game |
|---|---|
| Potential: average cards Pregame estimate of total cards, based on historical data and AI. Example: 4.8 cards ≈ an estimate of 5 cards. | 3.6 cards/game |
Season baseline (Season) Temp
| Factor | Atlético Mineiro | Cruzeiro |
|---|---|---|
| Total cards (average) Average cards per game this season (home + away). Example: 18 cards in 6 games = 3.0 cards/game. | 2.2 cards/game | 1.4 cards/game |
| Over 4.5 cards % Probability (or observed percentage, depending on the source) of 5+ cards in the game. Example: 60% estimates Over 4.5 in about 60 of 100 similar games. | 40 % | 40 % |
League (baseline) League
| Factor | League |
|---|---|
| League average cards Average cards per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 4.3 cards/game ≈ 4–5 cards per game. | 4.21 cards/game |
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