Estádio José Alvalade · Lisbon
Sporting CP2–0Finished
Nacional da MadeiraSporting CP 2 x 0 Nacional da Madeira: prediction analysis
The model predicted correctly 4 of 5 settled markets.
Correct predictions
- 1x2: prediction Sporting CP; result Sporting CP 2–0.
- Double Chance: prediction Sporting CP or draw; result Sporting CP 2–0.
- Both Teams to Score: prediction No; result No.
- Over 9.5 corners: prediction Over 9.5; result 12 corners.
Incorrect predictions
- Over 2.5 goals: prediction Over 2.5; result 2 goals.
Final assessment: For this game, most settled predictions matched the observed results.
View the analysis published before kickoff
Before the game, the model Predora Market Median estimated a 82.5% probability of a win for Sporting CP, 11.2% for a draw, and 6.3% for a win for Nacional da Madeira.
The 1X2 market is clearly tilted toward Sporting CP, with bookmakers pricing a home win between 1.17 and 1.24 (median 1.21). The draw is priced in a range of 6.00 to 7.67, while a Nacional win ranges from 10.5 to 14.0. The deterministic signals also point to the home side, but with less intensity: while the market separates the two sides by about 90% to 10%, the signals indicate a 77% to 23% split. In other words, there is convergence on the favorite, but the market is more convinced than the data suggest. The draw accounts for about 14% of the 1X2 consensus, a point to watch. The partial divergence indicates that the data-based assessment is consistent with the favorite status, but less extreme—which may reflect factors not captured by the signals, such as motivation or lineups. The uncertainty lies in the possibility of Nacional exploiting counterattacks and Sporting not maintaining the same attacking tempo throughout the match.
Market 1x2
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.21 / 82.5% Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.20 / 83.3% Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-0.8 p.p.Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-1.0%Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
Odds Comparison
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Probability Models
| Model | Sporting CP | Draw | Nacional da Madeira |
|---|---|---|---|
| Predora Market Median | 82.5% / 1.21 | 11.2% / 8.96 | 6.3% / 15.80 |
Market Double Chance
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.07 / 93.7% Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.02 / 98.0% Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-4.4 p.p.Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-4.5%Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
Odds Comparison
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Probability Models
| Model | 1X | X2 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Predora Market Median | 93.7% / 1.07 | 17.5% / 5.72 | 88.8% / 1.13 |
AI Analysis
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Team Comparison
Head-to-head (H2H) These statistics use the teams' most recent head-to-head games, generally from the last 10 to 15 years.H2H Last 5
| Factor | Sporting CP | Nacional da Madeira |
|---|---|---|
| H2H: W/D/L (last 5) Results from the last 5 head-to-head games between the teams. Example: 3–1–1 = 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss for the team on the left. | 5-0-0 | 0-0-5 |
| H2H: win % (home vs. away) (last 5) Head-to-head win percentage (last 5), split by home and away team. Example: the home team won 3 of 5 = 60%. | 100 % | 0 % |
Outcome Strength (Season)
Game context (Home/Away)
| Factor | Sporting CP Home | Nacional da Madeira Away |
|---|---|---|
| PPG (home/away) Average points per game in the relevant context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 6 points in 4 games = 1.5 points/game.Points per game in context (home team at home / away team away). | 3 pts/game | 0.33 pts/game |
| Win % (home/away) Win percentage in the relevant context (home for the home team, away for the away team). Example: 2 wins in 4 games = 50%. | 100 % | 0 % |
| Draw % (home/away) Draw percentage in the home/away context. Example: 1 draw in 4 games = 25%. | 0 % | 33.3 % |
| Goal difference (home/away) Average goal difference in context: goals scored minus goals conceded per game. Example: scored 6 and conceded 4 in 4 games → (6−4)/4 = +0.5. | 1.67 goals/game | -1 goals/game |
| xG difference (home/away) Average xG difference in context: xG for minus xG against per game. Example: 1.4 − 1.1 = +0.3 xG/game. | 0.67 xG/game | -1.33 xG/game |
Season baseline (Overall) Temp
| Factor | Sporting CP | Nacional da Madeira |
|---|---|---|
| PPG (overall) Average points per game this season (home + away). Example: 12 points in 8 games = 1.5 points/game. | 2.6 pts/game | 0.8 pts/game |
| Win % (overall) Win percentage this season (home + away). Example: 4 wins in 8 games = 50%. | 80 % | 20 % |
| Draw % (overall) Draw percentage this season (home + away). Example: 2 draws in 8 games = 25%. | 20 % | 20 % |
| Goal difference (overall) Average goal difference this season: (goals scored − goals conceded) / games. Example: 10−6 in 8 games → +0.5 per game. | 1.8 goals/game | -0.4 goals/game |
| xG difference (overall) Average xG difference this season: xG for minus xG against per game. Example: 1.6 − 1.2 = +0.4 xG/game. | 0.78 xG/game | -0.7 xG/game |
Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5
| Factor | Sporting CP | Nacional da Madeira |
|---|---|---|
| Form (last 5): W/D/L Results from the last 5 games: wins, draws, and losses. Example: 2–2–1 = 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss. | 4-1-0 | 1-1-3 |
| PPG (last 5) Average points from the last 5 games. Example: 7 points in 5 games = 1.4 points/game. | 2.6 pts/game | 0.8 pts/game |
Market Over 2.5 goals
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.43 / 69.7% Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.39 / 71.8% Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-2.1 p.p.Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-2.9%Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
Odds Comparison
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Probability Models
| Model | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Predora Market Median | 69.7% / 1.43 | 30.3% / 3.30 |
Team Comparison
Predictions (AI) Prev
| Factor | Game |
|---|---|
| Potential: average goals Pregame estimate of total goals, based on historical data and AI, combining both teams. Example: 2.8 goals/game ≈ an estimate of 3 goals. | 3.5 goals |
| Over 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of 3+ goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 52% estimates Over 2.5 in about 52 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of over 2.5 goals | 75 % |
| Under 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of under 2.5 goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 55% estimates Under 2.5 in about 55 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of under 2.5 goals | 25 % |
Season (baseline)
Game context (Home/Away)
| Factor | Sporting CP Home | Nacional da Madeira Away |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored (home/away) Average goals scored per game in the relevant context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 6 goals in 4 games = 1.5 goals/game. | 2.67 goals/game | 0.67 goals/game |
| Goals conceded (home/away) Average goals conceded per game in the home/away context. Example: 5 goals conceded in 4 games = 1.25 goals/game. | 1 goals/game | 1.67 goals/game |
| xG for (home/away) Average chance quality created per game (xG) in the home/away context. Example: 1.6 xG per game means the team’s shots add up to 1.6 expected goals per game on average. | 1.59 xG/game | 0.77 xG/game |
Overall (Season) Temp
| Factor | Sporting CP | Nacional da Madeira |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 (season) Percentage of season games with over 2.5 goals. Example: 7 of 13 games = 54%.Season games with Over 2.5 % | 80 % | 40 % |
| Goals scored (overall) Average goals scored per game this season (home + away). Example: 20 goals in 13 games = 1.54 goals/game. | 2.8 goals/game | 1.2 goals/game |
| Shots on target / game Average shots on target per game this season (home + away). Example: 48 shots on target in 10 games = 4.8 per game. | 6.6 shots on target/game | 2.8 shots on target/game |
| Goals conceded (overall) Average goals conceded per game this season (home + away). Example: 15 goals in 13 games = 1.15 goals/game. | 1 goals/game | 1.6 goals/game |
League (baseline) League
| Factor | League |
|---|---|
| League average goals Average goals per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 2.68 goals/game ≈ 2–3 goals per game.Average league goals per game (baseline) | 2.74 goals/game |
Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5
| Factor | Sporting CP | Nacional da Madeira |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored (last 5) Average goals scored per game in the last 5 games (recent form). Example: 9 goals in 5 games = 1.8 goals/game. | 2.8 goals/game | 1.2 goals/game |
| Goals conceded (last 5) Average goals conceded per game in the last 5 games (recent form). Example: 6 goals conceded in 5 games = 1.2 goals/game. | 1 goals/game | 1.6 goals/game |
Head-to-head (H2H) These statistics use the teams' most recent head-to-head games, generally from the last 10 to 15 years.H2H Last 5
| Factor | Sporting CP | Nacional da Madeira |
|---|---|---|
| H2H: Over 2.5 % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 head-to-head games with over 2.5 goals. Example: 3 of 5 games = 60%.Recent H2H games with Over 2.5 | 80 % | 80 % |
Market Both Teams to Score
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.73 / 57.7% Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.70 / 59.0% Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-1.3 p.p.Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-2.2%Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
Odds Comparison
Bookmakers
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Probability Models
| Model | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Predora Market Median | 42.3% / 2.36 | 57.7% / 1.73 |
Team Comparison
Predictions (AI) Prev
| Factor | Game |
|---|---|
| Potential: BTTS (%) Pregame estimated probability of both teams scoring, based on historical data and AI. Example: 58% estimates that about 58 of 100 similar games would have goals from both teams. | 75 % |
| Over 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of 3+ goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 52% estimates Over 2.5 in about 52 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of over 2.5 goals | 75 % |
Season baseline (Season)
Indicators associated with more BTTS outcomes
| Factor | Sporting CP | Nacional da Madeira |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS (season) % Percentage of season games in which both teams scored. Example: 7 of 12 games = 58%. | 60 % | 40 % |
| Games scoring 1+ goal % (season) Percentage of season games in which the team scored at least 1 goal. Example: scored in 10 of 12 games = 83%. | 100 % | 60 % |
| Games conceding 1+ goal % (season) Percentage of season games in which the team conceded at least 1 goal. Example: conceded in 8 of 12 games = 67%. | 60 % | 80 % |
Indicators associated with fewer BTTS outcomes
| Factor | Sporting CP | Nacional da Madeira |
|---|---|---|
| Clean sheet % (season) Percentage of clean sheets, a factor associated with fewer Both Teams to Score outcomes. Example: 4 clean sheets in 12 games = 33%. | 40 % | 20 % |
| Failed to score % (season) Percentage of games without scoring, a factor associated with fewer Both Teams to Score outcomes. Example: no goals scored in 3 of 12 games = 25%. | 0 % | 40 % |
Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5
| Factor | Sporting CP | Nacional da Madeira |
|---|---|---|
| Games scoring 1+ goal % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 games in which the team scored at least 1 goal. Example: scored in 4 of 5 = 80%. | 100 % | 60 % |
| Games conceding 1+ goal % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 games in which the team conceded at least 1 goal. Example: conceded in 3 of 5 = 60%. | 60 % | 80 % |
Head-to-head (H2H) These statistics use the teams' most recent head-to-head games, generally from the last 10 to 15 years.H2H Last 5
| Factor | Head-to-head (H2H) |
|---|---|
| H2H: BTTS % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 head-to-head games in which both teams scored. Example: 3 of 5 games = 60%. | 80 % |
Market Over 9.5 corners
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.88 / 53.3% Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.76 / 57.0% Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-3.7 p.p.Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-6.5%Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
Odds Comparison
Bookmakers
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Probability Models
| Model | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Predora Market Median | 53.3% / 1.88 | 46.7% / 2.14 |
Team Comparison
Predictions (AI) Prev
| Factor | Game |
|---|---|
| Potential: average corners Pregame estimate of total corners, based on historical data and AI. Example: 10.2 corners ≈ an estimate of 10 corners. | 7.5 corners |
| Potential Over 9.5 corners (%) Pregame estimated probability of 10+ corners, based on historical data and AI. Example: 58% estimates Over 9.5 in about 58 of 100 similar games. | 0 % |
Season (baseline)
Game context (Home/Away)
| Factor | Sporting CP Home | Nacional da Madeira Away |
|---|---|---|
| Corners for (home/away) Average corners won per game in context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 24 corners in 6 games = 4.0 per game. | 6.67 corners/game | 2.33 corners/game |
| Total corners (home/away) Average total corners per game in context (both teams combined). Example: 60 corners in 6 games = 10.0 per game. | 8.34 corners/game | 9 corners/game |
Overall (Season) Temp
| Factor | Sporting CP | Nacional da Madeira |
|---|---|---|
| Corners for (overall) Average corners won per game this season (home + away). Example: 40 in 10 games = 4.0 per game. | 5.4 corners/game | 3.6 corners/game |
| Total corners (overall) Average total corners per game this season (home + away). Example: 105 in 10 games = 10.5 per game. | 7.8 corners/game | 9 corners/game |
League (baseline) League
| Factor | League |
|---|---|
| League average corners (corners/game) Average corners per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 9.3 corners/game ≈ 9–10 corners per game. | 8.13 corners/game |
Cards
Team Comparison
Predictions (AI) Prev
| Factor | Game |
|---|---|
| Potential: average cards Pregame estimate of total cards, based on historical data and AI. Example: 4.8 cards ≈ an estimate of 5 cards. | 4 cards/game |
Season baseline (Season) Temp
| Factor | Sporting CP | Nacional da Madeira |
|---|---|---|
| Total cards (average) Average cards per game this season (home + away). Example: 18 cards in 6 games = 3.0 cards/game. | 2 cards/game | 1.6 cards/game |
| Over 4.5 cards % Probability (or observed percentage, depending on the source) of 5+ cards in the game. Example: 60% estimates Over 4.5 in about 60 of 100 similar games. | 20 % | 20 % |
League (baseline) League
| Factor | League |
|---|---|
| League average cards Average cards per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 4.3 cards/game ≈ 4–5 cards per game. | 4.13 cards/game |
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