Estadio Cuauhtémoc · Calle Calzada Ignacio Zaragoza, Colonia Unidad Deportiva Puebla
Club Puebla0–0Finished
Deportivo Toluca FCClub Puebla 0 x 0 Deportivo Toluca FC: prediction analysis
The result is available, but there are not enough settled predictions to assess the model's performance for this game.
View the analysis published before kickoff
Before the game, the model Predora Market Median estimated a 20.2% probability of a win for Club Puebla, 23.0% for a draw, and 56.8% for a win for Deportivo Toluca FC.
The 1X2 market shows a clear consensus in favor of Toluca: all 11 bookmakers analyzed place the visitors in an odds range between 1.61 and 1.70, with a median of 1.65. Puebla is a long way behind, with odds between 4.33 and 4.75, while the draw is around 4.10.
The deterministic signals point in the same direction as the market: Toluca has a relative advantage in practically every factor compared, such as recent PPG, goal difference and head-to-head history. The data and bookmaker prices are broadly aligned.
Even so, the draw accounts for around 23% of the 1X2 consensus, indicating that the market is not overlooking the possibility of a closer result. The main uncertainty is Puebla’s ability to make the game more even at home, despite the technical disadvantage.
Market 1x2
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.76 / 56.8% Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.70 / 58.8% Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-2.0 p.p.Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-3.4%Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
Odds Comparison
Bookmakers
Available with Predora Pro
Create free account Already have an account? Sign in
Probability Models
| Model | Club Puebla | Draw | Deportivo Toluca FC |
|---|---|---|---|
| Predora Market Median | 20.2% / 4.96 | 23.0% / 4.35 | 56.8% / 1.76 |
Market Double Chance
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.25 / 79.8% Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.20 / 83.3% Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-3.5 p.p.Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-4.2%Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
Odds Comparison
Bookmakers
Available with Predora Pro
Create free account Already have an account? Sign in
Probability Models
| Model | 1X | X2 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Predora Market Median | 43.2% / 2.32 | 79.8% / 1.25 | 77.0% / 1.30 |
AI Analysis
Market and data alignedAvailable with a free account
Create free account Already have an account? Sign in
Team Comparison
Head-to-head (H2H) These statistics use the teams' most recent head-to-head games, generally from the last 10 to 15 years.H2H Last 5
| Factor | Club Puebla | Deportivo Toluca FC |
|---|---|---|
| H2H: W/D/L (last 5) Results from the last 5 head-to-head games between the teams. Example: 3–1–1 = 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss for the team on the left. | 0-2-3 | 3-2-0 |
| H2H: win % (home vs. away) (last 5) Head-to-head win percentage (last 5), split by home and away team. Example: the home team won 3 of 5 = 60%. | 0 % | 60 % |
Outcome Strength (Season)
Game context (Home/Away)
| Factor | Club Puebla Home | Deportivo Toluca FC Away |
|---|---|---|
| PPG (home/away) Average points per game in the relevant context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 6 points in 4 games = 1.5 points/game.Points per game in context (home team at home / away team away). | 2 pts/game | 2.33 pts/game |
| Win % (home/away) Win percentage in the relevant context (home for the home team, away for the away team). Example: 2 wins in 4 games = 50%. | 50 % | 66.7 % |
| Draw % (home/away) Draw percentage in the home/away context. Example: 1 draw in 4 games = 25%. | 50 % | 33.3 % |
| Goal difference (home/away) Average goal difference in context: goals scored minus goals conceded per game. Example: scored 6 and conceded 4 in 4 games → (6−4)/4 = +0.5. | 0.5 goals/game | 1 goals/game |
| xG difference (home/away) Average xG difference in context: xG for minus xG against per game. Example: 1.4 − 1.1 = +0.3 xG/game. | -0.32 xG/game | -0.08 xG/game |
Season baseline (Overall) Temp
| Factor | Club Puebla | Deportivo Toluca FC |
|---|---|---|
| PPG (overall) Average points per game this season (home + away). Example: 12 points in 8 games = 1.5 points/game. | 1.67 pts/game | 2.17 pts/game |
| Win % (overall) Win percentage this season (home + away). Example: 4 wins in 8 games = 50%. | 50 % | 66.7 % |
| Draw % (overall) Draw percentage this season (home + away). Example: 2 draws in 8 games = 25%. | 16.7 % | 16.7 % |
| Goal difference (overall) Average goal difference this season: (goals scored − goals conceded) / games. Example: 10−6 in 8 games → +0.5 per game. | 0 goals/game | 1.33 goals/game |
| xG difference (overall) Average xG difference this season: xG for minus xG against per game. Example: 1.6 − 1.2 = +0.4 xG/game. | -0.32 xG/game | 0.79 xG/game |
Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5
| Factor | Club Puebla | Deportivo Toluca FC |
|---|---|---|
| Form (last 5): W/D/L Results from the last 5 games: wins, draws, and losses. Example: 2–2–1 = 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss. | 2-0-3 | 4-1-0 |
| PPG (last 5) Average points from the last 5 games. Example: 7 points in 5 games = 1.4 points/game. | 1.2 pts/game | 2.6 pts/game |
Market Over 2.5 goals
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.66 / 60.3% Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.59 / 62.9% Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-2.6 p.p.Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-4.1%Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
Odds Comparison
Bookmakers
Available with Predora Pro
Create free account Already have an account? Sign in
Probability Models
| Model | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Predora Market Median | 60.3% / 1.66 | 39.7% / 2.52 |
Team Comparison
Predictions (AI) Prev
| Factor | Game |
|---|---|
| Potential: average goals Pregame estimate of total goals, based on historical data and AI, combining both teams. Example: 2.8 goals/game ≈ an estimate of 3 goals. | 2.84 goals |
| Over 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of 3+ goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 52% estimates Over 2.5 in about 52 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of over 2.5 goals | 59 % |
| Under 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of under 2.5 goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 55% estimates Under 2.5 in about 55 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of under 2.5 goals | 42 % |
Season (baseline)
Game context (Home/Away)
| Factor | Club Puebla Home | Deportivo Toluca FC Away |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored (home/away) Average goals scored per game in the relevant context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 6 goals in 4 games = 1.5 goals/game. | 2 goals/game | 1.33 goals/game |
| Goals conceded (home/away) Average goals conceded per game in the home/away context. Example: 5 goals conceded in 4 games = 1.25 goals/game. | 1.5 goals/game | 0.33 goals/game |
| xG for (home/away) Average chance quality created per game (xG) in the home/away context. Example: 1.6 xG per game means the team’s shots add up to 1.6 expected goals per game on average. | 1.32 xG/game | 1.47 xG/game |
Overall (Season) Temp
| Factor | Club Puebla | Deportivo Toluca FC |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 (season) Percentage of season games with over 2.5 goals. Example: 7 of 13 games = 54%.Season games with Over 2.5 % | 50 % | 67 % |
| Goals scored (overall) Average goals scored per game this season (home + away). Example: 20 goals in 13 games = 1.54 goals/game. | 1.5 goals/game | 2 goals/game |
| Shots on target / game Average shots on target per game this season (home + away). Example: 48 shots on target in 10 games = 4.8 per game. | 5 shots on target/game | 6 shots on target/game |
| Goals conceded (overall) Average goals conceded per game this season (home + away). Example: 15 goals in 13 games = 1.15 goals/game. | 1.5 goals/game | 0.67 goals/game |
League (baseline) League
| Factor | League |
|---|---|
| League average goals Average goals per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 2.68 goals/game ≈ 2–3 goals per game.Average league goals per game (baseline) | 2.87 goals/game |
Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5
| Factor | Club Puebla | Deportivo Toluca FC |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored (last 5) Average goals scored per game in the last 5 games (recent form). Example: 9 goals in 5 games = 1.8 goals/game. | 1.6 goals/game | 2 goals/game |
| Goals conceded (last 5) Average goals conceded per game in the last 5 games (recent form). Example: 6 goals conceded in 5 games = 1.2 goals/game. | 1.8 goals/game | 0.8 goals/game |
Head-to-head (H2H) These statistics use the teams' most recent head-to-head games, generally from the last 10 to 15 years.H2H Last 5
| Factor | Club Puebla | Deportivo Toluca FC |
|---|---|---|
| H2H: Over 2.5 % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 head-to-head games with over 2.5 goals. Example: 3 of 5 games = 60%.Recent H2H games with Over 2.5 | 60 % | 60 % |
Market Both Teams to Score
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.69 / 59.1% Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.57 / 63.7% Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-4.5 p.p.Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-7.1%Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
Odds Comparison
Bookmakers
Available with Predora Pro
Create free account Already have an account? Sign in
Probability Models
| Model | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Predora Market Median | 59.1% / 1.69 | 40.9% / 2.45 |
Team Comparison
Predictions (AI) Prev
| Factor | Game |
|---|---|
| Potential: BTTS (%) Pregame estimated probability of both teams scoring, based on historical data and AI. Example: 58% estimates that about 58 of 100 similar games would have goals from both teams. | 59 % |
| Over 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of 3+ goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 52% estimates Over 2.5 in about 52 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of over 2.5 goals | 59 % |
Season baseline (Season)
Indicators associated with more BTTS outcomes
| Factor | Club Puebla | Deportivo Toluca FC |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS (season) % Percentage of season games in which both teams scored. Example: 7 of 12 games = 58%. | 67 % | 50 % |
| Games scoring 1+ goal % (season) Percentage of season games in which the team scored at least 1 goal. Example: scored in 10 of 12 games = 83%. | 83 % | 83 % |
| Games conceding 1+ goal % (season) Percentage of season games in which the team conceded at least 1 goal. Example: conceded in 8 of 12 games = 67%. | 83 % | 50 % |
Indicators associated with fewer BTTS outcomes
| Factor | Club Puebla | Deportivo Toluca FC |
|---|---|---|
| Clean sheet % (season) Percentage of clean sheets, a factor associated with fewer Both Teams to Score outcomes. Example: 4 clean sheets in 12 games = 33%. | 17 % | 50 % |
| Failed to score % (season) Percentage of games without scoring, a factor associated with fewer Both Teams to Score outcomes. Example: no goals scored in 3 of 12 games = 25%. | 17 % | 17 % |
Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5
| Factor | Club Puebla | Deportivo Toluca FC |
|---|---|---|
| Games scoring 1+ goal % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 games in which the team scored at least 1 goal. Example: scored in 4 of 5 = 80%. | 80 % | 80 % |
| Games conceding 1+ goal % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 games in which the team conceded at least 1 goal. Example: conceded in 3 of 5 = 60%. | 100 % | 60 % |
Head-to-head (H2H) These statistics use the teams' most recent head-to-head games, generally from the last 10 to 15 years.H2H Last 5
| Factor | Head-to-head (H2H) |
|---|---|
| H2H: BTTS % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 head-to-head games in which both teams scored. Example: 3 of 5 games = 60%. | 40 % |
Market Over 9.5 corners
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.76 / 56.9% Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.60 / 62.5% Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-5.6 p.p.Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-9.0%Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
Odds Comparison
Bookmakers
Available with Predora Pro
Create free account Already have an account? Sign in
Probability Models
| Model | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Predora Market Median | 56.9% / 1.76 | 43.1% / 2.32 |
Team Comparison
Predictions (AI) Prev
| Factor | Game |
|---|---|
| Potential: average corners Pregame estimate of total corners, based on historical data and AI. Example: 10.2 corners ≈ an estimate of 10 corners. | 10.5 corners |
| Potential Over 9.5 corners (%) Pregame estimated probability of 10+ corners, based on historical data and AI. Example: 58% estimates Over 9.5 in about 58 of 100 similar games. | 67 % |
Season (baseline)
Game context (Home/Away)
| Factor | Club Puebla Home | Deportivo Toluca FC Away |
|---|---|---|
| Corners for (home/away) Average corners won per game in context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 24 corners in 6 games = 4.0 per game. | 3.5 corners/game | 5 corners/game |
| Total corners (home/away) Average total corners per game in context (both teams combined). Example: 60 corners in 6 games = 10.0 per game. | 10.5 corners/game | 13 corners/game |
Overall (Season) Temp
| Factor | Club Puebla | Deportivo Toluca FC |
|---|---|---|
| Corners for (overall) Average corners won per game this season (home + away). Example: 40 in 10 games = 4.0 per game. | 4.67 corners/game | 5.83 corners/game |
| Total corners (overall) Average total corners per game this season (home + away). Example: 105 in 10 games = 10.5 per game. | 10.34 corners/game | 10.83 corners/game |
League (baseline) League
| Factor | League |
|---|---|
| League average corners (corners/game) Average corners per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 9.3 corners/game ≈ 9–10 corners per game. | 10.78 corners/game |
Cards
Team Comparison
Predictions (AI) Prev
| Factor | Game |
|---|---|
| Potential: average cards Pregame estimate of total cards, based on historical data and AI. Example: 4.8 cards ≈ an estimate of 5 cards. | 2.84 cards/game |
Season baseline (Season) Temp
| Factor | Club Puebla | Deportivo Toluca FC |
|---|---|---|
| Total cards (average) Average cards per game this season (home + away). Example: 18 cards in 6 games = 3.0 cards/game. | 1.17 cards/game | 1.67 cards/game |
| Over 4.5 cards % Probability (or observed percentage, depending on the source) of 5+ cards in the game. Example: 60% estimates Over 4.5 in about 60 of 100 similar games. | 17 % | 50 % |
League (baseline) League
| Factor | League |
|---|---|
| League average cards Average cards per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 4.3 cards/game ≈ 4–5 cards per game. | 4.07 cards/game |
Atletico San Luis
FC Juarez
Club Necaxa
Club Tijuana de Caliente
Atlante FC
Club Santos Laguna
Atlas FC
CF Pachuca