UEFA Nations League
Luxembourg crestLuxembourg
0–2Finished
Bulgaria crestBulgaria

Luxembourg 0 x 2 Bulgaria: prediction analysis

The model predicted correctly 3 of 5 settled markets.

Correct predictions

  • Over 2.5 goals: prediction Under 2.5; result 2 goals.
  • Both Teams to Score: prediction No; result No.
  • Over 9.5 corners: prediction Under 9.5; result 9 corners.

Incorrect predictions

  • 1x2: prediction Luxembourg; result Bulgaria 0–2.
  • Double Chance: prediction Luxembourg or draw; result Bulgaria 0–2.

Final assessment: For this game, most settled predictions matched the observed results.

English AI analysis is currently unavailable for this game.

Market 1x2

#68932276
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
2.28 / 43.8%
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
2.61 / 38.3%
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
+5.5 p.p.
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
+14.3%

Odds Comparison

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Probability Models

LuxembourgDrawBulgaria
Predora Market Median 43.8% / 2.28 29.5% / 3.39 26.7% / 3.75

Market Double Chance

#68932276
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.36 / 73.3%
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.42 / 70.6%
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
+2.7 p.p.
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
+3.8%

Odds Comparison

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Probability Models

1XX212
Predora Market Median 73.3% / 1.36 56.2% / 1.78 70.5% / 1.42

AI Analysis

Market and data aligned

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Team Comparison

Head-to-head (H2H) These statistics use the teams' most recent head-to-head games, generally from the last 10 to 15 years.H2H Last 5

Factor Luxembourg Bulgaria
H2H: W/D/L (last 5) Results from the last 5 head-to-head games between the teams. Example: 3–1–1 = 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss for the team on the left.1-3-11-3-1
H2H: win % (home vs. away) (last 5) Head-to-head win percentage (last 5), split by home and away team. Example: the home team won 3 of 5 = 60%.20 %20 %

Outcome Strength (Season)

Game context (Home/Away)

Factor Luxembourg Home Bulgaria Away
PPG (home/away) Average points per game in the relevant context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 6 points in 4 games = 1.5 points/game.Points per game in context (home team at home / away team away).0 pts/game0 pts/game
Win % (home/away) Win percentage in the relevant context (home for the home team, away for the away team). Example: 2 wins in 4 games = 50%.0 %0 %
Draw % (home/away) Draw percentage in the home/away context. Example: 1 draw in 4 games = 25%.0 %0 %
Goal difference (home/away) Average goal difference in context: goals scored minus goals conceded per game. Example: scored 6 and conceded 4 in 4 games → (6−4)/4 = +0.5.-2.5 goals/game-0.5 goals/game
xG difference (home/away) Average xG difference in context: xG for minus xG against per game. Example: 1.4 − 1.1 = +0.3 xG/game.0.01 xG/game-0.52 xG/game

Season baseline (Overall) Temp

Factor Luxembourg Bulgaria
PPG (overall) Average points per game this season (home + away). Example: 12 points in 8 games = 1.5 points/game.1 pts/game0.33 pts/game
Win % (overall) Win percentage this season (home + away). Example: 4 wins in 8 games = 50%.33.3 %0 %
Draw % (overall) Draw percentage this season (home + away). Example: 2 draws in 8 games = 25%.0 %33.3 %
Goal difference (overall) Average goal difference this season: (goals scored − goals conceded) / games. Example: 10−6 in 8 games → +0.5 per game.-1.25 goals/game-0.5 goals/game
xG difference (overall) Average xG difference this season: xG for minus xG against per game. Example: 1.6 − 1.2 = +0.4 xG/game.-0.1 xG/game-0.13 xG/game

Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5

Factor Luxembourg Bulgaria
Form (last 5): W/D/L Results from the last 5 games: wins, draws, and losses. Example: 2–2–1 = 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss.2-0-30-2-3
PPG (last 5) Average points from the last 5 games. Example: 7 points in 5 games = 1.4 points/game.1.2 pts/game0.4 pts/game

Market Over 2.5 goals

#68932276
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.51 / 66.3%
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.49 / 67.1%
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-0.8 p.p.
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-1.3%

Odds Comparison

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Probability Models

OverUnder
Predora Market Median 33.7% / 2.96 66.3% / 1.51

Team Comparison

Predictions (AI) Prev

FactorGame
Potential: average goals Pregame estimate of total goals, based on historical data and AI, combining both teams. Example: 2.8 goals/game ≈ an estimate of 3 goals.2.17 goals
Over 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of 3+ goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 52% estimates Over 2.5 in about 52 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of over 2.5 goals67 %
Under 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of under 2.5 goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 55% estimates Under 2.5 in about 55 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of under 2.5 goals33 %

Season (baseline)

Game context (Home/Away)

Factor Luxembourg Home Bulgaria Away
Goals scored (home/away) Average goals scored per game in the relevant context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 6 goals in 4 games = 1.5 goals/game.0 goals/game0 goals/game
Goals conceded (home/away) Average goals conceded per game in the home/away context. Example: 5 goals conceded in 4 games = 1.25 goals/game.3 goals/game3 goals/game
xG for (home/away) Average chance quality created per game (xG) in the home/away context. Example: 1.6 xG per game means the team’s shots add up to 1.6 expected goals per game on average.0.72 xG/game1.05 xG/game

Overall (Season) Temp

Factor Luxembourg Bulgaria
Over 2.5 (season) Percentage of season games with over 2.5 goals. Example: 7 of 13 games = 54%.Season games with Over 2.5 %67 %67 %
Goals scored (overall) Average goals scored per game this season (home + away). Example: 20 goals in 13 games = 1.54 goals/game.0.67 goals/game0.33 goals/game
Shots on target / game Average shots on target per game this season (home + away). Example: 48 shots on target in 10 games = 4.8 per game.3.33 shots on target/game4 shots on target/game
Goals conceded (overall) Average goals conceded per game this season (home + away). Example: 15 goals in 13 games = 1.15 goals/game.1.67 goals/game1.67 goals/game

League (baseline) League

FactorLeague
League average goals Average goals per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 2.68 goals/game ≈ 2–3 goals per game.Average league goals per game (baseline)2.46 goals/game

Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5

Factor Luxembourg Bulgaria
Goals scored (last 5) Average goals scored per game in the last 5 games (recent form). Example: 9 goals in 5 games = 1.8 goals/game.0.5 goals/game0.75 goals/game
Goals conceded (last 5) Average goals conceded per game in the last 5 games (recent form). Example: 6 goals conceded in 5 games = 1.2 goals/game.1.75 goals/game1.25 goals/game

Head-to-head (H2H) These statistics use the teams' most recent head-to-head games, generally from the last 10 to 15 years.H2H Last 5

Factor Luxembourg Bulgaria
H2H: Over 2.5 % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 head-to-head games with over 2.5 goals. Example: 3 of 5 games = 60%.Recent H2H games with Over 2.520 %20 %

Market Both Teams to Score

#68932276
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.72 / 58.1%
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.66 / 60.2%
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-2.2 p.p.
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-3.6%

Odds Comparison

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Probability Models

YesNo
Predora Market Median 41.9% / 2.38 58.1% / 1.72

Team Comparison

Predictions (AI) Prev

FactorGame
Potential: BTTS (%) Pregame estimated probability of both teams scoring, based on historical data and AI. Example: 58% estimates that about 58 of 100 similar games would have goals from both teams.33 %
Over 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of 3+ goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 52% estimates Over 2.5 in about 52 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of over 2.5 goals67 %

Season baseline (Season)

Indicators associated with more BTTS outcomes

Factor Luxembourg Bulgaria
BTTS (season) % Percentage of season games in which both teams scored. Example: 7 of 12 games = 58%.33 %33 %
Games scoring 1+ goal % (season) Percentage of season games in which the team scored at least 1 goal. Example: scored in 10 of 12 games = 83%.33 %33 %
Games conceding 1+ goal % (season) Percentage of season games in which the team conceded at least 1 goal. Example: conceded in 8 of 12 games = 67%.100 %67 %

Indicators associated with fewer BTTS outcomes

Factor Luxembourg Bulgaria
Clean sheet % (season) Percentage of clean sheets, a factor associated with fewer Both Teams to Score outcomes. Example: 4 clean sheets in 12 games = 33%.0 %33 %
Failed to score % (season) Percentage of games without scoring, a factor associated with fewer Both Teams to Score outcomes. Example: no goals scored in 3 of 12 games = 25%.67 %67 %

Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5

Factor Luxembourg Bulgaria
Games scoring 1+ goal % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 games in which the team scored at least 1 goal. Example: scored in 4 of 5 = 80%.25 %50 %
Games conceding 1+ goal % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 games in which the team conceded at least 1 goal. Example: conceded in 3 of 5 = 60%.100 %50 %

Head-to-head (H2H) These statistics use the teams' most recent head-to-head games, generally from the last 10 to 15 years.H2H Last 5

FactorHead-to-head (H2H)
H2H: BTTS % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 head-to-head games in which both teams scored. Example: 3 of 5 games = 60%.40 %

Market Over 9.5 corners

#68932276
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.73 / 57.6%
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.65 / 60.6%
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-3.0 p.p.
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-4.9%

Odds Comparison

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Probability Models

OverUnder
Predora Market Median 42.4% / 2.36 57.6% / 1.73

Team Comparison

Predictions (AI) Prev

FactorGame
Potential: average corners Pregame estimate of total corners, based on historical data and AI. Example: 10.2 corners ≈ an estimate of 10 corners.7 corners
Potential Over 9.5 corners (%) Pregame estimated probability of 10+ corners, based on historical data and AI. Example: 58% estimates Over 9.5 in about 58 of 100 similar games.50 %

Season (baseline)

Game context (Home/Away)

Factor Luxembourg Home Bulgaria Away
Corners for (home/away) Average corners won per game in context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 24 corners in 6 games = 4.0 per game.2 corners/game1 corners/game
Total corners (home/away) Average total corners per game in context (both teams combined). Example: 60 corners in 6 games = 10.0 per game.4 corners/game10 corners/game

Overall (Season) Temp

Factor Luxembourg Bulgaria
Corners for (overall) Average corners won per game this season (home + away). Example: 40 in 10 games = 4.0 per game.3 corners/game4 corners/game
Total corners (overall) Average total corners per game this season (home + away). Example: 105 in 10 games = 10.5 per game.7.67 corners/game10.33 corners/game

League (baseline) League

FactorLeague
League average corners (corners/game) Average corners per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 9.3 corners/game ≈ 9–10 corners per game.8.58 corners/game

Cards

Team Comparison

Predictions (AI) Prev

FactorGame
Potential: average cards Pregame estimate of total cards, based on historical data and AI. Example: 4.8 cards ≈ an estimate of 5 cards.6.67 cards/game

Season baseline (Season) Temp

Factor Luxembourg Bulgaria
Total cards (average) Average cards per game this season (home + away). Example: 18 cards in 6 games = 3.0 cards/game.3.67 cards/game3 cards/game
Over 4.5 cards % Probability (or observed percentage, depending on the source) of 5+ cards in the game. Example: 60% estimates Over 4.5 in about 60 of 100 similar games.67 %67 %

League (baseline) League

FactorLeague
League average cards Average cards per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 4.3 cards/game ≈ 4–5 cards per game.4.32 cards/game
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