Eliteserien
Tromsoe IL crestTromsoe IL
0–0Scheduled
Bodoe/Glimt crestBodoe/Glimt

Tromsoe IL x Bodoe/Glimt: Probabilities, Odds, and AI Analysis

For Tromsoe IL vs. Bodoe/Glimt, the model Predora Market Median estimates a 13.4% probability of a win for Tromsoe IL, 17.7% for a draw, and 68.9% for a win for Bodoe/Glimt.

View analysis: market vs. statistics

Bookmaker consensus and the supplied statistical comparison both favor Bodoe/Glimt. Relative strength—a comparison using the supplied statistics, not a win probability—is 62.3% for Bodoe/Glimt and 37.7% for Tromsoe IL.

After excluding the draw and rescaling the two teams’ bookmaker shares to total 100%, Bodoe/Glimt has 83.8% and Tromsoe IL 16.2%. The draw accounts for 17.8% of the full home-win, draw or away-win market. These market shares and relative strength are different measures.

Bookmaker prices range from 1.30 to 1.36 for Bodoe/Glimt, 4.80 to 5.50 for a draw and 6.25 to 7.50 for Tromsoe IL. The home-and-away points-per-game indicator is closer: 2.08 for Tromsoe IL at home and 2.17 for Bodoe/Glimt away, over 12 games each.

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Market 1x2

#67015462
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.45 / 68.9%
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.36 / 73.5%
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-4.6 p.p.
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-6.3%

Odds Comparison

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Probability Models

Tromsoe ILDrawBodoe/Glimt
Predora Market Median 13.4% / 7.49 17.8% / 5.63 68.9% / 1.45

Market Double Chance

#67015462
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.15 / 86.6%
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.11 / 90.0%
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-3.4 p.p.
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-3.7%

Odds Comparison

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Probability Models

1XX212
Predora Market Median 31.1% / 3.21 86.6% / 1.15 82.2% / 1.22

AI Analysis

Market and data partially aligned

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Team Comparison

Head-to-head (H2H) These statistics use the teams' most recent head-to-head games, generally from the last 10 to 15 years.H2H Last 5

Factor Tromsoe IL Bodoe/Glimt
H2H: W/D/L (last 5) Results from the last 5 head-to-head games between the teams. Example: 3–1–1 = 3 wins, 1 draw, 1 loss for the team on the left.1-2-22-2-1
H2H: win % (home vs. away) (last 5) Head-to-head win percentage (last 5), split by home and away team. Example: the home team won 3 of 5 = 60%.20 %40 %

Outcome Strength (Season)

Game context (Home/Away)

Factor Tromsoe IL Home Bodoe/Glimt Away
PPG (home/away) Average points per game in the relevant context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 6 points in 4 games = 1.5 points/game.Points per game in context (home team at home / away team away).2.08 pts/game2.17 pts/game
Win % (home/away) Win percentage in the relevant context (home for the home team, away for the away team). Example: 2 wins in 4 games = 50%.58.3 %66.7 %
Draw % (home/away) Draw percentage in the home/away context. Example: 1 draw in 4 games = 25%.33.3 %16.7 %
Goal difference (home/away) Average goal difference in context: goals scored minus goals conceded per game. Example: scored 6 and conceded 4 in 4 games → (6−4)/4 = +0.5.1 goals/game0.92 goals/game
xG difference (home/away) Average xG difference in context: xG for minus xG against per game. Example: 1.4 − 1.1 = +0.3 xG/game.0.8 xG/game0.77 xG/game

Season baseline (Overall) Temp

Factor Tromsoe IL Bodoe/Glimt
PPG (overall) Average points per game this season (home + away). Example: 12 points in 8 games = 1.5 points/game.1.6 pts/game2.36 pts/game
Win % (overall) Win percentage this season (home + away). Example: 4 wins in 8 games = 50%.44 %76 %
Draw % (overall) Draw percentage this season (home + away). Example: 2 draws in 8 games = 25%.28 %8 %
Goal difference (overall) Average goal difference this season: (goals scored − goals conceded) / games. Example: 10−6 in 8 games → +0.5 per game.0.2 goals/game1.52 goals/game
xG difference (overall) Average xG difference this season: xG for minus xG against per game. Example: 1.6 − 1.2 = +0.4 xG/game.0.2 xG/game1.28 xG/game

Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5

Factor Tromsoe IL Bodoe/Glimt
Form (last 5): W/D/L Results from the last 5 games: wins, draws, and losses. Example: 2–2–1 = 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss.1-2-23-0-2
PPG (last 5) Average points from the last 5 games. Example: 7 points in 5 games = 1.4 points/game.1 pts/game1.8 pts/game

Market Over 2.5 goals

#67015462
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.49 / 67.3%
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.40 / 71.4%
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-4.2 p.p.
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-5.8%

Odds Comparison

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Probability Models

OverUnder
Predora Market Median 67.3% / 1.49 32.7% / 3.06

Team Comparison

Predictions (AI) Prev

FactorGame
Potential: average goals Pregame estimate of total goals, based on historical data and AI, combining both teams. Example: 2.8 goals/game ≈ an estimate of 3 goals.2.88 goals
Over 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of 3+ goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 52% estimates Over 2.5 in about 52 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of over 2.5 goals55 %
Under 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of under 2.5 goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 55% estimates Under 2.5 in about 55 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of under 2.5 goals46 %

Season (baseline)

Game context (Home/Away)

Factor Tromsoe IL Home Bodoe/Glimt Away
Goals scored (home/away) Average goals scored per game in the relevant context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 6 goals in 4 games = 1.5 goals/game.1.83 goals/game2 goals/game
Goals conceded (home/away) Average goals conceded per game in the home/away context. Example: 5 goals conceded in 4 games = 1.25 goals/game.0.83 goals/game1.08 goals/game
xG for (home/away) Average chance quality created per game (xG) in the home/away context. Example: 1.6 xG per game means the team’s shots add up to 1.6 expected goals per game on average.1.9 xG/game1.91 xG/game

Overall (Season) Temp

Factor Tromsoe IL Bodoe/Glimt
Over 2.5 (season) Percentage of season games with over 2.5 goals. Example: 7 of 13 games = 54%.Season games with Over 2.5 %52 %72 %
Goals scored (overall) Average goals scored per game this season (home + away). Example: 20 goals in 13 games = 1.54 goals/game.1.72 goals/game2.44 goals/game
Shots on target / game Average shots on target per game this season (home + away). Example: 48 shots on target in 10 games = 4.8 per game.5.28 shots on target/game6.52 shots on target/game
Goals conceded (overall) Average goals conceded per game this season (home + away). Example: 15 goals in 13 games = 1.15 goals/game.1.52 goals/game0.92 goals/game

League (baseline) League

FactorLeague
League average goals Average goals per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 2.68 goals/game ≈ 2–3 goals per game.Average league goals per game (baseline)3.26 goals/game

Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5

Factor Tromsoe IL Bodoe/Glimt
Goals scored (last 5) Average goals scored per game in the last 5 games (recent form). Example: 9 goals in 5 games = 1.8 goals/game.1.2 goals/game1.8 goals/game
Goals conceded (last 5) Average goals conceded per game in the last 5 games (recent form). Example: 6 goals conceded in 5 games = 1.2 goals/game.2.2 goals/game1.2 goals/game

Head-to-head (H2H) These statistics use the teams' most recent head-to-head games, generally from the last 10 to 15 years.H2H Last 5

Factor Tromsoe IL Bodoe/Glimt
H2H: Over 2.5 % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 head-to-head games with over 2.5 goals. Example: 3 of 5 games = 60%.Recent H2H games with Over 2.560 %60 %

Market Both Teams to Score

#67015462
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.75 / 57.1%
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.70 / 58.8%
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-1.7 p.p.
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-2.9%

Odds Comparison

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Probability Models

YesNo
Predora Market Median 57.1% / 1.75 42.9% / 2.33

Team Comparison

Predictions (AI) Prev

FactorGame
Potential: BTTS (%) Pregame estimated probability of both teams scoring, based on historical data and AI. Example: 58% estimates that about 58 of 100 similar games would have goals from both teams.42 %
Over 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of 3+ goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 52% estimates Over 2.5 in about 52 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of over 2.5 goals55 %

Season baseline (Season)

Indicators associated with more BTTS outcomes

Factor Tromsoe IL Bodoe/Glimt
BTTS (season) % Percentage of season games in which both teams scored. Example: 7 of 12 games = 58%.48 %44 %
Games scoring 1+ goal % (season) Percentage of season games in which the team scored at least 1 goal. Example: scored in 10 of 12 games = 83%.72 %88 %
Games conceding 1+ goal % (season) Percentage of season games in which the team conceded at least 1 goal. Example: conceded in 8 of 12 games = 67%.64 %56 %

Indicators associated with fewer BTTS outcomes

Factor Tromsoe IL Bodoe/Glimt
Clean sheet % (season) Percentage of clean sheets, a factor associated with fewer Both Teams to Score outcomes. Example: 4 clean sheets in 12 games = 33%.36 %44 %
Failed to score % (season) Percentage of games without scoring, a factor associated with fewer Both Teams to Score outcomes. Example: no goals scored in 3 of 12 games = 25%.28 %12 %

Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5

Factor Tromsoe IL Bodoe/Glimt
Games scoring 1+ goal % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 games in which the team scored at least 1 goal. Example: scored in 4 of 5 = 80%.80 %80 %
Games conceding 1+ goal % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 games in which the team conceded at least 1 goal. Example: conceded in 3 of 5 = 60%.100 %80 %

Head-to-head (H2H) These statistics use the teams' most recent head-to-head games, generally from the last 10 to 15 years.H2H Last 5

FactorHead-to-head (H2H)
H2H: BTTS % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 head-to-head games in which both teams scored. Example: 3 of 5 games = 60%.40 %

Market Over 9.5 corners

#67015462
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.89 / 52.8%
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.73 / 57.9%
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-5.1 p.p.
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-8.9%

Odds Comparison

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Probability Models

OverUnder
Predora Market Median 47.2% / 2.12 52.8% / 1.89

Team Comparison

Predictions (AI) Prev

FactorGame
Potential: average corners Pregame estimate of total corners, based on historical data and AI. Example: 10.2 corners ≈ an estimate of 10 corners.11.67 corners
Potential Over 9.5 corners (%) Pregame estimated probability of 10+ corners, based on historical data and AI. Example: 58% estimates Over 9.5 in about 58 of 100 similar games.33 %

Season (baseline)

Game context (Home/Away)

Factor Tromsoe IL Home Bodoe/Glimt Away
Corners for (home/away) Average corners won per game in context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 24 corners in 6 games = 4.0 per game.6 corners/game5.67 corners/game
Total corners (home/away) Average total corners per game in context (both teams combined). Example: 60 corners in 6 games = 10.0 per game.9.42 corners/game8.67 corners/game

Overall (Season) Temp

Factor Tromsoe IL Bodoe/Glimt
Corners for (overall) Average corners won per game this season (home + away). Example: 40 in 10 games = 4.0 per game.4.96 corners/game7.48 corners/game
Total corners (overall) Average total corners per game this season (home + away). Example: 105 in 10 games = 10.5 per game.9.08 corners/game9.84 corners/game

League (baseline) League

FactorLeague
League average corners (corners/game) Average corners per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 9.3 corners/game ≈ 9–10 corners per game.10.86 corners/game

Cards

Team Comparison

Predictions (AI) Prev

FactorGame
Potential: average cards Pregame estimate of total cards, based on historical data and AI. Example: 4.8 cards ≈ an estimate of 5 cards.1.92 cards/game

Season baseline (Season) Temp

Factor Tromsoe IL Bodoe/Glimt
Total cards (average) Average cards per game this season (home + away). Example: 18 cards in 6 games = 3.0 cards/game.1.72 cards/game0.56 cards/game
Over 4.5 cards % Probability (or observed percentage, depending on the source) of 5+ cards in the game. Example: 60% estimates Over 4.5 in about 60 of 100 similar games.28 %12 %

League (baseline) League

FactorLeague
League average cards Average cards per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 4.3 cards/game ≈ 4–5 cards per game.3.68 cards/game
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