Sports Illustrated Stadium · Frank Rogers Boulevard South
New York Red Bulls0–0Finished
Saint Louis CityNew York Red Bulls 0 x 0 Saint Louis City: prediction analysis
The result is available, but there are not enough settled predictions to assess the model's performance for this game.
View the analysis published before kickoff
Before the game, the model Predora Market Median estimated a 26.7% probability of a win for New York Red Bulls, 23.1% for a draw, and 50.2% for a win for Saint Louis City.
The market makes Saint Louis City SC a clear favorite, with odds between 1.83 and 1.92 for an away win, while New York Red Bulls is priced in the 3.40 to 3.62 range and the draw between 3.90 and 4.20. The bookmakers’ assessment, excluding the draw, gives the away side about 65% of the share between the two sides, compared with 35% for the hosts—a clear advantage.
The deterministic signals also favor the away side, but less strongly: in the relative comparison, Saint Louis gets about 54% against 46% for Red Bulls. The alignment between the market and the data-based assessment is partial: both point in the same direction, but the price on the away side reflects greater confidence than the objective factors suggest.
The factors that most support the case for the away side are recent form (2.6 PPG over the last five matches) and overall performance this season. The home/away numbers and xG differential in this context, however, show relative balance, indicating that the match could be more closely contested than the odds suggest. The draw, which accounts for about 23% of the 1X2 consensus, also remains a significant possibility.
The uncertainty stems from this difference in intensity: while the bookmakers see the away side as a commanding favorite, the data point to a real but less comfortable advantage, especially given Red Bulls’ balanced performance at home.
Market 1x2
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.99 / 50.2% Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.92 / 52.1% Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-1.9 p.p.Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-3.6%Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
Odds Comparison
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Probability Models
| Model | New York Red Bulls | Draw | Saint Louis City |
|---|---|---|---|
| Predora Market Median | 26.7% / 3.74 | 23.1% / 4.33 | 50.2% / 1.99 |
Market Double Chance
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.30 / 76.9% Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.50 / 66.7% Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
+10.3 p.p.Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
+15.4%Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
Odds Comparison
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Probability Models
| Model | 1X | X2 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Predora Market Median | 49.8% / 2.01 | 73.3% / 1.36 | 76.9% / 1.30 |
AI Analysis
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Team Comparison
Outcome Strength (Season)
Game context (Home/Away)
| Factor | New York Red Bulls Home | Saint Louis City Away |
|---|---|---|
| PPG (home/away) Average points per game in the relevant context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 6 points in 4 games = 1.5 points/game.Points per game in context (home team at home / away team away). | 1.25 pts/game | 1.31 pts/game |
| Win % (home/away) Win percentage in the relevant context (home for the home team, away for the away team). Example: 2 wins in 4 games = 50%. | 33.3 % | 30.8 % |
| Draw % (home/away) Draw percentage in the home/away context. Example: 1 draw in 4 games = 25%. | 25 % | 38.5 % |
| Goal difference (home/away) Average goal difference in context: goals scored minus goals conceded per game. Example: scored 6 and conceded 4 in 4 games → (6−4)/4 = +0.5. | -0.42 goals/game | -0.15 goals/game |
| xG difference (home/away) Average xG difference in context: xG for minus xG against per game. Example: 1.4 − 1.1 = +0.3 xG/game. | 0.19 xG/game | -0.12 xG/game |
Season baseline (Overall) Temp
| Factor | New York Red Bulls | Saint Louis City |
|---|---|---|
| PPG (overall) Average points per game this season (home + away). Example: 12 points in 8 games = 1.5 points/game. | 1.27 pts/game | 1.69 pts/game |
| Win % (overall) Win percentage this season (home + away). Example: 4 wins in 8 games = 50%. | 34.6 % | 46.2 % |
| Draw % (overall) Draw percentage this season (home + away). Example: 2 draws in 8 games = 25%. | 23.1 % | 30.8 % |
| Goal difference (overall) Average goal difference this season: (goals scored − goals conceded) / games. Example: 10−6 in 8 games → +0.5 per game. | -0.54 goals/game | 0.35 goals/game |
| xG difference (overall) Average xG difference this season: xG for minus xG against per game. Example: 1.6 − 1.2 = +0.4 xG/game. | -0.05 xG/game | 0.25 xG/game |
Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5
| Factor | New York Red Bulls | Saint Louis City |
|---|---|---|
| Form (last 5): W/D/L Results from the last 5 games: wins, draws, and losses. Example: 2–2–1 = 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 loss. | 2-1-2 | 4-1-0 |
| PPG (last 5) Average points from the last 5 games. Example: 7 points in 5 games = 1.4 points/game. | 1.4 pts/game | 2.6 pts/game |
Market Over 2.5 goals
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.49 / 67.2% Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.42 / 70.4% Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-3.3 p.p.Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-4.6%Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
Odds Comparison
Bookmakers
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Probability Models
| Model | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Predora Market Median | 67.2% / 1.49 | 32.8% / 3.05 |
Team Comparison
Predictions (AI) Prev
| Factor | Game |
|---|---|
| Potential: average goals Pregame estimate of total goals, based on historical data and AI, combining both teams. Example: 2.8 goals/game ≈ an estimate of 3 goals. | 3.1 goals |
| Over 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of 3+ goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 52% estimates Over 2.5 in about 52 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of over 2.5 goals | 44 % |
| Under 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of under 2.5 goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 55% estimates Under 2.5 in about 55 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of under 2.5 goals | 56 % |
Season (baseline)
Game context (Home/Away)
| Factor | New York Red Bulls Home | Saint Louis City Away |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored (home/away) Average goals scored per game in the relevant context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 6 goals in 4 games = 1.5 goals/game. | 1.5 goals/game | 1.31 goals/game |
| Goals conceded (home/away) Average goals conceded per game in the home/away context. Example: 5 goals conceded in 4 games = 1.25 goals/game. | 1.92 goals/game | 1.46 goals/game |
| xG for (home/away) Average chance quality created per game (xG) in the home/away context. Example: 1.6 xG per game means the team’s shots add up to 1.6 expected goals per game on average. | 1.62 xG/game | 1.35 xG/game |
Overall (Season) Temp
| Factor | New York Red Bulls | Saint Louis City |
|---|---|---|
| Over 2.5 (season) Percentage of season games with over 2.5 goals. Example: 7 of 13 games = 54%.Season games with Over 2.5 % | 54 % | 54 % |
| Goals scored (overall) Average goals scored per game this season (home + away). Example: 20 goals in 13 games = 1.54 goals/game. | 1.31 goals/game | 1.73 goals/game |
| Shots on target / game Average shots on target per game this season (home + away). Example: 48 shots on target in 10 games = 4.8 per game. | 4.54 shots on target/game | 4.81 shots on target/game |
| Goals conceded (overall) Average goals conceded per game this season (home + away). Example: 15 goals in 13 games = 1.15 goals/game. | 1.85 goals/game | 1.38 goals/game |
League (baseline) League
| Factor | League |
|---|---|
| League average goals Average goals per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 2.68 goals/game ≈ 2–3 goals per game.Average league goals per game (baseline) | 3.21 goals/game |
Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5
| Factor | New York Red Bulls | Saint Louis City |
|---|---|---|
| Goals scored (last 5) Average goals scored per game in the last 5 games (recent form). Example: 9 goals in 5 games = 1.8 goals/game. | 0.6 goals/game | 3 goals/game |
| Goals conceded (last 5) Average goals conceded per game in the last 5 games (recent form). Example: 6 goals conceded in 5 games = 1.2 goals/game. | 1 goals/game | 1.8 goals/game |
Market Both Teams to Score
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.51 / 66.4% Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.41 / 70.9% Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-4.5 p.p.Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-6.3%Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
Odds Comparison
Bookmakers
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Probability Models
| Model | Yes | No |
|---|---|---|
| Predora Market Median | 66.4% / 1.51 | 33.6% / 2.98 |
Team Comparison
Predictions (AI) Prev
| Factor | Game |
|---|---|
| Potential: BTTS (%) Pregame estimated probability of both teams scoring, based on historical data and AI. Example: 58% estimates that about 58 of 100 similar games would have goals from both teams. | 64 % |
| Over 2.5 potential Pregame estimated probability of 3+ goals, based on historical data and AI. Example: 52% estimates Over 2.5 in about 52 of 100 similar games.Pregame probability of over 2.5 goals | 44 % |
Season baseline (Season)
Indicators associated with more BTTS outcomes
| Factor | New York Red Bulls | Saint Louis City |
|---|---|---|
| BTTS (season) % Percentage of season games in which both teams scored. Example: 7 of 12 games = 58%. | 62 % | 73 % |
| Games scoring 1+ goal % (season) Percentage of season games in which the team scored at least 1 goal. Example: scored in 10 of 12 games = 83%. | 73 % | 85 % |
| Games conceding 1+ goal % (season) Percentage of season games in which the team conceded at least 1 goal. Example: conceded in 8 of 12 games = 67%. | 85 % | 88 % |
Indicators associated with fewer BTTS outcomes
| Factor | New York Red Bulls | Saint Louis City |
|---|---|---|
| Clean sheet % (season) Percentage of clean sheets, a factor associated with fewer Both Teams to Score outcomes. Example: 4 clean sheets in 12 games = 33%. | 15 % | 12 % |
| Failed to score % (season) Percentage of games without scoring, a factor associated with fewer Both Teams to Score outcomes. Example: no goals scored in 3 of 12 games = 25%. | 27 % | 15 % |
Recent form (Last 5) These statistics cover the team's last 5 games, regardless of league or season.Last 5
| Factor | New York Red Bulls | Saint Louis City |
|---|---|---|
| Games scoring 1+ goal % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 games in which the team scored at least 1 goal. Example: scored in 4 of 5 = 80%. | 60 % | 100 % |
| Games conceding 1+ goal % (last 5) Percentage of the last 5 games in which the team conceded at least 1 goal. Example: conceded in 3 of 5 = 60%. | 40 % | 100 % |
Market Over 9.5 corners
Odds (Active Model) Fair odds according to the active model The odds calculated from the active model's estimated probability.
Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
1.93 / 51.8% Formula: 1 ÷ Estimated probability
Best Market Odds The implied probability of the bookmaker offering the highest odds for this outcome. A reference for comparison with the model's estimate.
Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
1.83 / 54.8% Formula: 1 ÷ Best market odds (highest-paying bookmaker)
Edge (Mathematical Advantage) The difference between the model's probability and the implied probability of the highest-paying bookmaker. A positive value means the model estimates a higher probability than the odds imply; it does not guarantee a profit.
Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
-3.0 p.p.Formula: Probability − Implied probability (Book)
EV (Expected Value) A statistical estimate calculated from the Active Model's probability and the highest observed odds. If the Active Model's estimate is closer to the true probability than the odds-implied probability, positive EV may indicate estimated value at those odds. It is not a proven advantage, promise of profit, or guarantee of a result.
Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
-5.4%Formula: (Estimated probability × Odds) − 1
Odds Comparison
Bookmakers
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Probability Models
| Model | Over | Under |
|---|---|---|
| Predora Market Median | 51.8% / 1.93 | 48.2% / 2.08 |
Team Comparison
Predictions (AI) Prev
| Factor | Game |
|---|---|
| Potential: average corners Pregame estimate of total corners, based on historical data and AI. Example: 10.2 corners ≈ an estimate of 10 corners. | 10.66 corners |
| Potential Over 9.5 corners (%) Pregame estimated probability of 10+ corners, based on historical data and AI. Example: 58% estimates Over 9.5 in about 58 of 100 similar games. | 60 % |
Season (baseline)
Game context (Home/Away)
| Factor | New York Red Bulls Home | Saint Louis City Away |
|---|---|---|
| Corners for (home/away) Average corners won per game in context (home team at home, away team away). Example: 24 corners in 6 games = 4.0 per game. | 5.58 corners/game | 5.08 corners/game |
| Total corners (home/away) Average total corners per game in context (both teams combined). Example: 60 corners in 6 games = 10.0 per game. | 9.91 corners/game | 10.85 corners/game |
Overall (Season) Temp
| Factor | New York Red Bulls | Saint Louis City |
|---|---|---|
| Corners for (overall) Average corners won per game this season (home + away). Example: 40 in 10 games = 4.0 per game. | 5.73 corners/game | 5.54 corners/game |
| Total corners (overall) Average total corners per game this season (home + away). Example: 105 in 10 games = 10.5 per game. | 10.96 corners/game | 10.19 corners/game |
League (baseline) League
| Factor | League |
|---|---|
| League average corners (corners/game) Average corners per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 9.3 corners/game ≈ 9–10 corners per game. | 10.01 corners/game |
Cards
Team Comparison
Predictions (AI) Prev
| Factor | Game |
|---|---|
| Potential: average cards Pregame estimate of total cards, based on historical data and AI. Example: 4.8 cards ≈ an estimate of 5 cards. | 4.31 cards/game |
Season baseline (Season) Temp
| Factor | New York Red Bulls | Saint Louis City |
|---|---|---|
| Total cards (average) Average cards per game this season (home + away). Example: 18 cards in 6 games = 3.0 cards/game. | 2.19 cards/game | 2.12 cards/game |
| Over 4.5 cards % Probability (or observed percentage, depending on the source) of 5+ cards in the game. Example: 60% estimates Over 4.5 in about 60 of 100 similar games. | 31 % | 46 % |
League (baseline) League
| Factor | League |
|---|---|
| League average cards Average cards per game in the league this season (competition baseline). Example: 4.3 cards/game ≈ 4–5 cards per game. | 4.3 cards/game |
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